Tag: horse racing
A world cup that is suited to the desert
Saturday sees one of the world’s richest horse races take place at Meydan, the Dubai world cup.
Over the years I’ve moved from dabbling in the Meydan markets to doing them seriously. They often make for a useful addition on a dull Thursday in the UK. Therefore I’d recommend a dabble in these markets if the volume is holding up and there is no clashing with other races. The world cup itself must be one of few where the prize …
The Flat is back
Tomorrow marks the traditional return of the flat turf season at Doncaster.
The end of the footy season is nearing, the Grand National is right upon us and the first Golf Major of the year is almost here. It’s a period of transition.
Transition
At this time of year, we move from the National Hunt season to the Flat season proper. This marks the return of flat racing over the green stuff and that may bring out new horses or …
A day of racing you shouldn’t miss
Tomorrow we have the finale to the flat turf season and a curtain raiser to the flat turf season. How can you have both? Let me explain.
Ascot champions day
First, we have ‘Champions day’ at Ascot and it promises to be a real feast of racing.
Champions day only came into being in 2011 so it’s relatively new in the scheme of things but it’s a weekend I wouldn’t miss for anything now. It’s the last shot at a …
Calamity Cambridgeshire
I’ve picked off a few good results from the Cambridgeshire in the past and hope to this weekend.
The race
The Cambridgeshire is a very competitive large field handicap run at Newmarket each year. It’s focal point at this time of year and followed by the Cesarewitch. As with all big, competitive, quality races; fill rate will be at the top of my mind. I’m not expecting a gamble to explode out of nowhere, but you never know nowadays.
The …
Marmite Monday
It’s that day of the year that you either love or hate. The August bank holiday in the UK brings a whole bunch of racing, all on the same day.
There will be lots of meetings on Monday and about a billion races. This may seem like heaven for some, but it’s a nightmare for others. Quite a few races will attract little liquidity, a lot isn’t of quality and many races will clash meaning that you can’t do much …
Had a good week last week? Here’s why…
You may have seen me post up results or information along the lines of ‘If you did this with £100 you would have managed to achieve this’.
I collect and analyse a lot of data and it’s all with the aim of identifying biases and the structural nature of a market. You would be surprised how many markets exhibit biases. Some have exhibited a structural bias for my entire trading career. I’ve casually dropped hints now and again and it’s …
Behind the scenes at the home of British horse racing
A few weeks ago I was fortunate to be invited to Newmarket (the birthplace and spiritual home of British horseracing) by a fellow Bet Angel forum member who is an ex-jockey that rode for Sir Mark Prescott for many years.
Newmarket itself is steeped in history and is built around horse racing with approx. 3000 horses stabled across 2500 acres. It is home to most of the UK’s top trainers. The best way to describe it would be to say …
Ascot 2017 post meeting summary
I’ve been meaning to summarise Ascot. It’s always worth doing as you can refer back to it next year for comparison, so here goes: –
Turnover
Betfair ended up matching, at post time, around £70.5m which was up on last year by about 23%. Last year was down quite a bit so this returns the matched bet turnover to levels that would be deemed ‘normal’.
In the run up to Ascot, I reckoned it would trade around £65m so that’s …
Betfair trading – Little and often soon adds up
This is a phrase I’ll often quote when advising people on how to trade.
The real objective when trading
It’s really nice to bang in some massive results now and again, but generally, that’s not what trading is about. Most of the time I’m in a market I’m just looking for an opportunity. Something I recognise as having a decent chance of a payoff, with as little downside as possible. Sometimes you just can’t see them and sometimes they are …
Aintree, the Grand National and fallers
If there is one thing Aintree is known for it is spectacular fallers. In 2011 British racing yielded to public opinion and changed the fences at Aintree. The idea was to stop more fallers and serious injuries to horses. Did that happen? Will it happen? What the key factors behind a faller in a race?
Source data
To answer all the questions I took a look at half a million horses that raced around the various jumps races over the …
There is Light at the End of the Tunnel!
We are now in the middle of February which is historically the poorest and hardest trading month of the year on the pre-race horse racing markets, typically there will only be around £450m traded this month which is around 40% less than the amounts expected as we hit peak season where the monthly volume will of increased to around £750m.
How does this effect thing from a trading perspective?
When trading any market liquidity is key none more so than …
Derby Day!
Isn’t the Derby in June? Yes and no….
If you are in Australia, early tomorrow morning (UK Time) is Derby Day at Flemington in Victoria. This kicks off the Melbourne Cup carnival and a week of top class Australian action. On Tuesday we have the race that stops a nation, the Melbourne Cup then more top quality days on Thursday and the following Saturday. It’s a busy period full stop on the horse racing front, as we also have the …
Loadsamoney
I made a post on social media this week about an article that appeared in the Financial Times. I didn’t realise at the time of posting, that in the background there was a mention of a sizeable position then went through the market at Royal Ascot.
I only realised this, when people started questioning it shortly after the post. Asking how it was possible put £125k through a market?
Ordinary or extraordinary?
This wasn’t an ordinary market, though, this was …
York Dante Meeting
After a successful Chester meeting we roll onto York for the Dante meeting this week.
The York card looks good with plenty of group racing, but the other stuff on the card today looks a little ‘testing’. For a direct comparison look at the prize money. Kempton has a grand total of £18.4k, York £191.5k. I’ll be cautious and use small stakes at the smaller meetings as a result.
As we move through the early part of the flat turf …
Trading Horse Racing – Workshop
Why trade horse racing?
Trading horse racing markets pre-off is big business. In 2015 just short of £9bn was matched on horse racing before a single stride in the race had been completed.
That’s more than twice as much as football and nine times the same amount that is matched on Tennis. Racing is the biggest pre-off market on Betfair and provides some unique trading opportunities.
As I write this, today there are eight race meetings, with a total of …
Chester May Festival
Chester May festival starts today and it’s a welcome addition to the card, but based upon previous years it’s nothing amazing from a trading viewpoint.
Obviously we all love some extra liquidity that the quality racing will bring, but it’s never been a meeting that I’ve got really good amounts from. By that I mean I’m not banging in three figure results a race. Just the odd one or two a day. The thing to note about Chester is its …
A day at the races
After many years sat behind the screen. I’ve been making a conscious effort recently, to actually get out and enjoy some of the hard earned. But also I’ve been keen to experience first hand some of the sporting venues I’ve traded.
This was another year when I declined an invite to the Cheltenham Festival, but I made up for it yesterday by attending the racing there. Judging by the weather I picked the right day! I was quite keen to …
Made in Meydan
Today sees the worlds richest horse race take place at Meydan, the Dubai world cup.
Over the years I’ve moved from dabbling in the Meydan markets to doing them seriously. They often make for a useful addition on a dull winters day in the UK. Therefore I’d recommend a dabble in these markets if the volume is holding up and there is no clashing with other races. The world cup stands out on it’s own as a race later in …
Cheltenham day one preview
Willie do it again?
As I wrote last year, Willie Mullins is once again looking likely to dominate the first day of the 2016 Cheltenham Festival. It does seem, according to some that he simply has to turn up on Day 1 of this year’s equine Olympics and leaves everyone quaking in their boots; especially the bookmakers! I have to say that Willie may not have it all his own way as his horses do not, in my humble opinion, …
Trading Cheltenham
There is plenty to help you and get stuck into this Cheltenham if you are a Bet Angel user. Not only do you have a vast range of tools available but also the biggest set of videos you can image, a busy forum to chat to other traders and if you are looking to trading automatically a library of examples.Plenty to get stuck into on one of the biggest trading weeks of the year.
There is plenty to get stuck …
Billy no mates
Nobody has invited us around this Christmas, so yet again today, our family is hosting everybody for lunch, but I wont be there. I guess somebody needs to earn the money to pay for it 😉 I’ll be locked in my study and making the odd appearance to say hello.
New years day is a busy day in the sporting world. At least the footy is occurring on a different day this year! But the racing is on today, as …
Hennessy Gold Cup – One of my favourite races
I have fond memories of the Hennessy Gold Cup. I’ve traditionally done well at this race and its the race I traded live at the IX Investor show for Betfair in 2006. I know I’ve posted this summary, or something similar, before. But it’s definitely one of the highlights of my trading career so far so it’s worth a reprise for those that haven’t seen it before.
Betfair at a financial market expo
Seeing a betting company at a financial …
Why trading horse racing works so well!
We had a glorious example earlier this week as to why trading is definitely a better way to earn money on Racing than traditional punting! The great thing about this trade, is that I did it office when we had somebody in for training; so it was great to pull of such a trade while they were here.
If somebody from a traditional punting background doesn’t understand why they should trade, show them this post!
The set up
We have …
Ebor, Ebore or Ffast Loss?
Summer racing isn’t over quite yet and today kicks of the Ebor meeting at York. I’ve traditionally done OK at this festival each year so I am looking for something above average this week.
The Ebor meeting can yield some good results, but nothing is ever guaranteed and this meeting can be a bit random at times so it’s probably not going to be all plain sailing. It should be better than what we have been seeing recently though.
Traditionally …
Betdaq and Irish racing
We have a confluence of opportunity today, but unusually, it will be pronounced on Betdaq.
To understand why we need to look at two factors. Prior to 2008 I wasn’t really active on Betdaq. I took an interest in 2008, but it was pretty quiet. However my hand was forced in 2011, so I started to set about doing something in earnest from that point. Volume, noticeably on horse racing has been rising steadily since then to the point where …
Royal Ascot week
And so here we are, another year, another Ascot. That came around quickly didn’t it!
For me, it’s another declined invitation to attend. While that pains me, for the moment I’d still rather be on this side of the desk during one of the busiest weeks of the year. By next year my eldest will probably be in a position to take over! Subject to performance and enthusiasm!
Ascot is obviously a big deal and generally I target it to …
BETDAQ Royal Ascot promotion
BETDAQ is back with a key promotion at Royal Ascot, well timed if I say so myself!
As I’m sure you’re aware, next week is a huge one for traders with Royal Ascot and the US Open taking place. BETDAQ has traditionally performed well during the big meetings (see the image below), if not better nowadays than Betfair. So it’s an ideal opportunity to give it a try next week. I tend to trade on both exchanges during these key …
Two card Tuesdays
We have reached the time of year when Monday and Tuesday UK racing drops to two cards in the afternoon. It’s an important time of year, as this changes the characteristic of these cards to the negative, but also it allows you to do a few other things and skip these cards if needed.
Impact on racing
Racing tends to be lower quality on a Monday and Tuesday and that combined with the 15 minute gaps in-between the cards leads …
Trading the Newmarket Guineas meeting
The weather is looking mixed this weekend for the first real big trading market of the flat season, the Guineas. I’ve always enjoyed the Guineas meeting and have had some fun and game over the years on it.
Last year on the 2000 Guineas I bagged a decent total from the race. The market reached over £4m in turnover but tomorrow I think it will be down a bit. This is mainly due to the market dynamics and the fact …
Spring is definitely here
European clay court Tennis, Racing at Newmarket and shock of all shocks, some decent weather in the UK. Spring is definitely here!
So we are now on the cusp of a lot of major sporting action. This year wont be quite as busy as last year but it’s something to look forward too.
The Monte Carlo Masters Tennis is a signal to start dusting down things for the French Open. The clay court season in past years has been interesting …
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