Tag: strategies
Luck and Skill in sport
Sport is generally about two different players or team competing with each other. It’s unlikely they will be equally matched in every respect, though not impossible. But typically a differential exists between the two. However, luck can be a key component in a sport as well.
Luck in football
The number of goals in football is low, an average of 2.60 goals a game. Watch this video to learn more about that.Over the course
Over the course of a …
Betfair Trading course – Learn to trade on Betfair
Check out the FREE Betfair trading course at the Online Academy: –
https://www.betangelacademy.com
Preamble
If you are looking at learning to trade, here is a way to get a really good start onto the first step of the trading ladder?
If you are coming from a gambling background, from matched betting or you are just intrigued by trading on sports. We can give you improved confidence in your initial trading journey by teaching you how to trade on Betfair. We’ve …
What’s working in Euro 2016
As we move into the knockout stage, let’s review what’s happened in the Euro’s so far from a market perspective.
Turnover
The first thing to note is that the volumes are down a fair bit from Euro 2012 on Betfair. In 2012 in the group stages the lowest turnover match was £7.7m before the off and £17.8m at the end of the match. This year it was a paltry £1.6m and £3.3m, slightly lower than in 2012! I think it’s …
Tennis trading primer
Just a quick video as we have had a lot of people asking how you trade Tennis. So we have produce just a short primer giving you some ideas and a short discussion on Tennis, we hope it’s useful.
Major new release of Bet Angel
It’s Wimbledon and just in time, we are delighted to release another new version of Bet Angel. This version builds on recent releases to expand the scope, scale and capacity of the Tennis live scores feature.
Key changes
Alongside some minor updates, the major component of this release is the ability to trade Tennis automatically from within Bet Angel’s Advanced automation tool. Let me explain and show you how!
Download the latest version (Version 1.41)
First you need to download …
Court Speed in Tennis Trading
Recently on Twitter, there has been detailed conversation about court speed, and the impact that it has in Tennis.
As a trader, let me make one point abundantly clear here – I don’t care why the conditions at a venue is fast or slow, just that it will be, and that it is possible to ascertain this information in advance. Advance knowledge of conditions will enable me to work out the likelihood of players holding serve, and a fast hard …
Peter’s laying system
Slightly tongue in cheek title – If there’s one mistake I’ve made in my time in the markets it’s not sticking my name on a concept. As a consequence there are a lot of phrases out there that most probably originated from this camp but are now in general use. Therefore I’m probably the ‘hoover’ of the Betfair trading world, the ‘biro’ the ‘sellotape’. To be fair this happens to everybody who is a pioneer so a also tip my …
Little and often
This is a phrase I’ll often quote when advising people on how to trade. I posted up a full list of results from yesterday and it got a fair amount of commentary because it illustrated exactly that point. More information further down this post.
It’s really nice to bang in some massive results now and again, but generally, that’s not what trading is about. Well. not 80% of the time on racing.
Most of the time I’m in a market …
Does scalping still work?
I’m doing a course today at the office where, amongst many things, I will talk about scalping and answer this question. The answer is ‘Yes’ by the way.
Qualifying the ‘yes’
For every market, there is a strategy and every strategy a market. Your mission is to join the two up. If you deploy the wrong strategy in the wrong market then you will get bad results. So underlying this ‘Yes’ is some depth and qualification, it takes a bit …
I lose money regulary…
Insert caveat – When I’m testing a new strategy!
In the thinner winter markets I often spend a lot of time revising data collected at other times of the year and inching forward on new ideas. I’m a great believer that no matter how much data you have, it’s more important to actually apply things into the market. There are two key reasons for this: –
(1) You need to be careful when Data mining, it can be statistical deja-vu. …
Losers, winners and strike rates
Further to my previous post about strike rates, I thought I add some flesh to the discussion.
At the end of the day people have a variety of different risk profiles. Your tolerance and reaction to risk is predominantly a psychological factor. The good thing is you can learn to overcome any psychological failings. When I was not as experienced as I am now I would often over analyse things and let the market be my master. Now I am …
Tennis trading – Faking it
Great match last night between Tipsarevic and Ferrer, probably one of the best of the tournament for trading. I was getting a bit tired though near the end. Two of three kids are back at school and it’s early mornings again!
Ferrer went a set up only to find himself two sets to one down, only to turn it around and win on a tie break in the fifth. This match is a great illustration of how some matches are …
Winning Betfair Strategies
Roll up, I have a new system for you, for no effort and little skill you can bag £50k a year and Sir, for you today, it’s only…. Not £499, Not even £99, but just £37. But hurry I am closing offers on Friday and I only have 20 left!
I bet you heard that pitch before, it seems every day my inbox is fills up with offers telling me they have a foolproof system for me. A lot get …
A different way to profit from Euro 2012
As you know Euro 2012 is a seeded tournament. When the little balls came out of the bag it was designed so that the higher ranked teams would progress to the latter stages of the tournament and make UEFA more money, sorry, make the tournament more entertaining.
To be fair to UEFA, it is the same in most modern tournaments, the big teams and big audiences fund the sport and therefore want to be favoured. Tennis grand slams are …
A question of scale (part two)
In part one we talked about how scale could be an issue in the markets, but how?
If you are betting there is a maximum amount of money that you can bet ‘at value’. Obviously there is little point in betting outside of value, so by default that means it’s impossible to fulfill an unlimited amount at value. It’s also impossible to take all the money on offer and get value, so you realise quickly that there is only a …
Creating a profitable strategy (Part one)
Lots of people want to know how to do a winning trade. But very few ask, or think hard enough about how to create an overall postive strategy.
In the context of trying to do something positive over the long term, a trade is just one component of a broader strategy. Trades will win but also lose and therefore it’s the overall strategy where we want to get the balance right rather than getting too focused on each individual position …
Losers needed!
Over the years I’ve studied the markets and a number of strategies, but all of these have been focused on winning.
Late last year I turned my attention to why people lose, the psychology behind that, but also what fundamental flaws they have with their approaches in the market.
If you mess around at random you should, over long periods, break even less the spread or commission that you pay to the service provider. However, when I look at a …
0-0 Continued…
Well the two key matches I was looking at worked pretty well in the end but the other ‘deserved’ 0-0 at half time ended up 3-0 to the home team. This illustrates a key point.
With any in-play market you are hostage to what happens during the event. If you take a rigid approach to the underlying event you can’t really hope to out perform the statistics that can be modelled in the market.
In yesterdays match Joey O’Brian was …
It’s all kicking off!
Yes the premier league is back. Twenty teams, OK maybe four, well maybe three battle it out for the greatest honour in football…. Who will sack their manager first!
As I have mentioned in previous posts the market tends to inefficient at the start of the season. I looked back over the two months at the start of last season to see what happened last year.
The first thing to note is that the market got the number of goals …
Gambling millions
Give me five minutes with somebody and I can teach you how to put through enormous sums through a market at relatively little risk, you wont make or lose much, but you will be able to say that you gambled millions that day, an impressive feat; or is it?
I have often been misquoted, especially when it comes to numbers. But one thing that is fairly certain in the modern betting age, is that racking up bets in the millions …
Losing it!
A good example of key turning point in a Tennis match recently. Whether you consider the distraction a key point or the reaction to it, It dug under the mood and psyche of the player and triggered off a bad run in the match. Sometimes not all turning points are based on stats or interpretation of them. However, they do help frame your potential risk and reward and that’s why we created Tennis Trader.
https://sports.yahoo.com/tennis/
You can’t take account …
Bump..
Now Cheltenham is firmly behind us and the champions league football pauses for a few weeks, it’s time to come back to earth with a bump. On the racing front, the weeks before and after Cheltenham are often starkly different, so it’s time to dig deep and stay out of trouble.
I’ll be adopting a cautious approach in the coming week and not trying to push too hard to find an opportunity. Doing that gives you a tendency to look …
And the winner is?
‘Reality’ TV is reaching it’s year end climax and I’m looking forward to a boost to my December totals.
Despite their nature, there are sometimes some very intuitive trades to be made on reality shows. Not always, but quite often, opportunities jump out of these contests. So while I don’t tend to watch this sort of stuff, some logic will point you in the direction of a clear opportunity.
On the X-Factor I have had up to £4.5k green on …
Connect
Connect with us on the following social media platforms.