Tennis trading – Faking it

07/09/2012 | By More

Great match last night between Tipsarevic and Ferrer, probably one of the best of the tournament for trading. I was getting a bit tired though near the end. Two of three kids are back at school and it’s early mornings again!

Ferrer went a set up only to find himself two sets to one down, only to turn it around and win on a tie break in the fifth. This match is a great illustration of how some matches are possible to trade in a number of ways and still end up ahead. If you think about the way the sets went, it didn’t matter who you backed or laid you would have still been ahead at some point.

The biggest drama was held for the last set, which unlike other grand slams, has to be decided on a tie break. Serving at 4-4 Tipsarevic looked completely out for the count at 15-40. A break would have left him receiving to save the match. After a stumble earlier on in the game Tipsarevic called the trainer on at 15-40. A little apology to Ferrer for doing so.

It looked pretty clear to me that he was trying to get Ferrer out of rythm. After some general random hand gestures to the trainer, he got his leg strapped, on the opposite side to which he fell, and got on with the game. He won the next four points and the game. He also managed to push Ferrer to 15-30 in the next game and that swung the odds from an almost certain loss to the prospect of two sets each in two points time. So, a genuine injury or a fake injury in the name of a little bit of gamesmanship? You decide!

This match showed the importance of watching ‘live’. Without that benefit it would have been difficult to directly anticipate the potential swing in fortunes. As it was, it was a trade with little downside but lots of chunky upside. It also illustrated just how different a match is that ends in a tie than one that ends with an advantage set.

You just have to love matches like this!

Tags: , , ,

Category: Tennis, Trading strategies

About the Author ()

I left a good job in the consumer technology industry to go a trade on Betfair for a living way back in June 2000. I've been here ever since pushing very boundaries of what's possible on betting exchanges and loved every minute of it.

Comments are closed.