Trading Relegation markets
I recently did a piece of relegation markets, concerning manager sackings which often occur at Christmas and new player arrivals / departures in the new year.
I have written a short piece for Betfair and a longer one for Racing Ahead magazine, but I think the video I did on You Tube is probably the best overall summary. You can view it here, or I have embedded it at the end of this video.
To supplement this video you may want to have a look at Swansea and these stats brought to your by our friends over at Football Form Labs. These supplement my comments and thoughts very well: –
PREMIER LEAGUE TRANSFERS
Wilfried Bony, Forward, Swansea to Man City
Swansea’s win rate falls from 38% in the 42 matches Bony has played since the start of last season to just 19% in the 16 he’s missed. Furthermore, they’ve averaged 1.57 goals per game with him but just 0.81 without, as 11 of 16 matches have had fewer than three goals. Swansea will surely struggle to replace Bony’s goals, whilst City will be hoping that he will boost their title charge once he returns from international duty at the African Cup of Nations.
Phillip Wollscheid, Defender, Bayer Leverkusen to Stoke (Loan)
Wollscheid has only played 12 games for Leverkusen since the start of last season and in these games Leverkusen average 1.33 points per game, compared to 2.12 in the 24 games without Wollscheid. However, Leverkusen’s average goals conceded does go up from 1.00 to 1.29 without Wollscheid and this is also the case going back to 09/10; since then, Leverkusen’s average goals conceded in the 43 games Wollscheid has played is 1.09, but this goes up to 1.30 in the 27 games without him. Stoke will be hoping that Wollscheid will add further stability to their defence, which is already the eighth best in the league in terms of goals conceded.
Matt Grimes, Midfielder, Exeter to Swansea
Swansea looked to have unearthed a talented youngster in central midfielder Matt Grimes, who’s been impressive for Exeter this season, playing 20 of their 27 games. In the games he’s missed Exeter average only 1.29 points per games, compared with 1.55 when he’s played and their average goals conceded also goes up markedly from 1.1 to 2.14 without Grimes in the team.
Category: Football trading strategies, Trading strategies
