Tag: fa cup
Trading the FA Cup
It’s the FA Cup third round this weekend and marks just over halfway point in the season.
Has the FA Cup lost it’s ‘magic’?
If you are talking about a smaller club meeting up with a goliath, then perhaps not. But it may be that the smaller club faces a diminished version of said goliath. As they say, Money talks and it doesn’t say much in the FA Cup, apart for smaller teams.
Win a game in the second round …
Interesting statistics for the FA Cup Fi-nil
So the FA Cup final is upon us and, rather predictably, the final has delivered us two premiership teams. But what will the match deliver? Is that going to be as predictable as well?
While today’s match may throw off differing characteristics based on what I saw of Palace last weekend, I’ve delved back over a number of years to see if I can unlock some prevailing trends.
History has shown us, the FA Cup is no particular respecter of …
Option to profit
Been nosing at the Derby vs. Man Utd FA Cup this evening with interest.
Man United are about evens for the match and playing away. This struck a chord with me.
First off, everybody knows how bad Man Utd have been recently. Their last 11 home games at half time have been 0-0,0-0,0-0,0-0,0-0,0-0,0-1,0-0,0-0,0-0,0-0. OK they are away and at a team a division lower, but confidence is obviously fragile. If Derby want to make things difficult, especially tactically, they can.…
FA Cup third round shocks
Ah, the romance of the FA Cup
The romance bit comes from a non league team coming up against a major club and beating them. But the evidence for regular giant killings is getting a little thin on the ground. But the third round and confidence can make a huge difference.
Small teams and progression
In 2014 we had Sheffield United getting all the way to the semi finals and of course in 2013 Wigan ensured the demise of Mancini’s …
FA Cup final special
I was going to write up the FA Cup final and then this arrived. An excellent write up brought to your by our friends over at Football Form Labs. Check out their site and the powerful software that sits behind these comments.
FA Cup Final: Arsenal v Aston Villa (Sat, 17:30)
Tim Sherwood will be up against the club that he supported as a boy in Saturday’s FA Cup final at Wembley as his Villa side take on last …
Luck of the draw
The FA Cup fifth round is upon us and unlike previous years the competition has been very interesting so far.
A raft of premiership clubs have already been dumped out of the competition and that’s changed the shape a bit. In the fifth round this year the premier league clubs account for 96% of the market. This is lower than previous years which have been 98.76%, 98.36% and 99.30%.
So for the first time in a few years that percentage …
Shocking moments
The romance bit comes from a non league team coming up against a major club and beating them. But the evidence for regular giant killings is getting a little thin on the ground.
Last year we had Sheffield United getting all the way to the semi finals and of course in 2013 Wigan ensured the demise of Mancini’s tenure at Man City by winning the Cup. But since the start of the Premier League no team from outside the it …
FA Cup Fi-nil, Some interesting statistics
So the FA Cup final is upon us and, rather predictably, the final has delivered us two premiership teams. But what will the match deliver, is that going to be as predictable as well? I’ve delved back over a number of years to see if I can unlock some prevailing trends.
At first hand you can see that the final looks uncompetitive, Arsenal are heavy favourites to lift the cup. But as history has shown us, the FA Cup is …
FA Cup trading so far..
A quick review of how the FA Cup has traded so far this year. Pretty much the same as prior years TBH.
In the third round Premier league teams were 96.84% of the market. Today that stands at 99.15%, I think the winner could perhaps come from the premier league this year! If you look at the movers from the third round you see a slightly clearer picture, but obviously a lot of that is down to the draw: –…
Picking an FA Cup shock
Ah, the romance of the FA Cup!
The romance bit comes from a non league team coming up against a major club and beating them. But the evidence for regular giant killings is a little thin on the ground.
Last year of course Wigan ensured the demise of Mancini’s tenure at Man City by winning the Cup. In 2012, for the first time since 1994, a minor team made the fifth round. In the prior year a league two team …
FA Cup fifth round
So the FA Cup trundles on.
No real surprises so far in terms of how the tournament is playing out. I’ve pointed out in previous blog posts that from a tournament trading perspective it’s dominated by the top teams. So far this year premiership teams have dominated the book% in all rounds and that doesn’t look like it’s going to change.
Volumes on FA Cup matches are lower than higher profile so I’m starting to find it a bit annoying! …
Picking an FA Cup shock
Ah, the romance of the FA Cup!
The romance bit comes from a non league team coming up against a major club and beating them. But the evidence for regular giant killings is a little thin on the ground.
Last year, for the first time since 1994 a minor team made the fifth round. In the prior year a league two team made the fifth round, but there are often many years where this doesn’t occur. It really is the …
Has the FA Cup lost its appeal?
Took some time out last Saturday to trade the FA CUP final pre-off. I was expecting a vibrant, lively market but ended up with the opposite and traded out for a small loss. The racing was yielding much more.
I was surprised at how little matched bet turnover there was. At the start of the FA CUP final there was matched bet volume of £3,533,632. On Tuesday night the same teams met again in the premier league and the matched …
Happy St Patrick’s day
Best wishes to our Irish customers. Whatever you are doing today have a good one.
After the frenzy of Cheltenham we return to earth with a bump today. Lots of racing, but little of note. Use today to adjust yourself back to the melee of lower quality racing. On the football however we have the FA Cup quarter finals, so that looks interesting and will throw up some opportunities. I may dip in out and of those markets.
For main …
Which match?
I’m looking at three different matches this evening.
First you have Barcelona vs Leverkusen, Barca 1.17 to win and 3-1 up from the away leg, a formality. But there is little incentive for Barcelona to go for and nothing for Leverkusen to lose so an interesting set up. Barca should win easily, but the lack of incentive gives an opportunity for a slip up.
Spurs vs Stevenage is a different kettle of fish (love that phrase). Spurs have a great …
FA Cup Fifth round
Rather predictably we reach the fifth round of the FA Cup today with 99% of the market made up from Premiership teams. In round three that figure was 94.7% and round four 96.10%. What’s the betting we reach the final with 100%?
The fifth round is more likely to make that happen as there is only one clash this weekend where two premiership teams meet up. I think this looks the most interesting, Sunderland vs Arsenal, as it has the …
FA Cup – Round four winners
Rather than a prediction this is a glance back. A look if the ‘romance’ of the FA Cup is still alive.
At the start of the third round, premier league teams made up 93.69% of the market. They now make up 80% of the market, the romance of an outsider winning the cup is still alive it would seem.
However, top flight four teams met each other in round three so we will have to delete these for the purposes …
Shocking news
That’s what the lower league clubs will be hoping for today when they step out for the FA Cup third round today.
I quite like the FA CUP as it means more to teams. This means motivation is at a high and it is also non seeded. This means that the big guys can meet in the early rounds and knock each other out leaving some minion to an improbable appearance in the latter stages. It feels like the days …
FA CUP final
Is it just me or does the FA Cup feel like it’s losing is significance? Maybe it’s the dominance by big teams, maybe it’s the fact that this season the premiership and the champions league have pushed it around a little? Anyhow that’s not to detract too much from this famous competition. I am sure either supporters will be rightly proud if their team pull of a win.
The market is pricing in 2.50 goals with an advantage of 0.50 …
FA Cup
Most of this weekends ties look to have a certain amount of inevitability about them. You would expect to see most of the favourites see off the weaker teams, but I do fancy the look of Stoke vs Brighton.
It has a nice set up to it with Stoke doing ‘OK’ in the Premiership but Brighton going great guns in league one. I reckon the seagulls will really be up for this match and will have the belief they can …
FA CUP fifth round
I like the later stages of knockout competitions. There is lots to play for and when a goal down and ten minutes are left , it’s all or nothing. These are the places you not only find value but plenty of opportunity and teams playing out of their skin, I love it! Wembley stadium is only a few games away today and anything can happen.
I’ve checked through the odds and nothing wierd has been thrown up. But consider the …
Couldn’t make it up
One tie looks set to light up what otherwise appears to be a dull and predictable fifth round FA Cup draw.
I waited with baited breath knowing that there were a few ties that could produce a classic cup match, but was amazed when the one top of my list occurred, Southampton vs Porstmouth. I couldn’t believe it!
This should be a real classic fifth round tie. Local derby, quite a history behind this fixture and a perfect set up. …
FA CUP value
Where is the value in today’s FA Cup?
To be honest any recommendations would come with a large pinch of salt. While predicting matches in the same league is quite a straightford process, doing the same in a cup competition can be pretty tricky. If there are any matches I am likely to get caught out on, its quite likely to be a cup competition, especially in the early rounds. As such I’ll do some simple things when the screen …
FA Cup shock
Just watched Coventry take the lead against Portsmouth and the commentator said, ‘The shock is on’.
Portsmouth are not exactly on fire and I think Coventry will fancy their chances. In contrast Portsmouth are really low on morale and just don’t look up for it. The odds seem to fairly reflect that as they are pricing in an even match, so hardly a shock in my books if Coventry win.
A little tit bit for you. Steve Claridge helping commentate …
FA Cup value?
In the absence of horse racing today I’ve taken a look at the FA Cup fixtures this afternoon. Subject to team sheets there appears to be a lot of potential value in the Reading vs. Liverpool fixture this afternoon. I’ve explained my full rationale on the forum.
Of course, just seeing value doesn’t mean the result will come in. But over time hunting for value is always a good strategy. If the weather persists in being so cold, I’ll …
One for the conspiracy theorists!
Was it my imagination or did the live TV feed from the Everton vs Liverpool FA Cup match break down right at the critical moment? One minute the match was dragging on to a 0-0 draw and penalties. The next minute the feed is lost and we see adverts and the like. During the ‘outage’ Everton score. Goodness knows how many minutes without a goal and then an outage in the seconds a goal goes in. A coincidence I am …
The best from the worst
Looked at the football last night to see if there was anything worth trading, but there was little on. I tend not to mess around in cup matches as they are less predictable than normal matches and subject to some funny activity now and again. Last night’s match between Fulham and Sheffield Utd looked really uninspiring fodder.
And so it proved as Fulham and Sheffield Utd slogged out a drab 0-0 draw. I was glad I missed it to be …