FA CUP fifth round

13/02/2010 | By More

I like the later stages of knockout competitions. There is lots to play for and when a goal down and ten minutes are left , it’s all or nothing. These are the places you not only find value but plenty of opportunity and teams playing out of their skin, I love it! Wembley stadium is only a few games away today and anything can happen.

I’ve checked through the odds and nothing wierd has been thrown up. But consider the general picture if you are going to have a play today. With Chelsea and Man City at home it would be a shock to see an upset there, but you may want to be with Stoke if you are looking for one. They have nothing to lose and Man City seem a little fragile. Backing Chelsea at 1.16 is more of a punt than a trade, so look to secondary markets for an opportunity. Cardiff will probably fight a rearguard action and hope to nick something on the break.

Derby, Reading and Southampton are all matches with similar traits. Weaker team playing at home with strong away teams. Both Reading and Southampton will fancy their chances but I’m not so sure about Derby. These matches will probably be played with caution by the stronger away team who don’t want to concede and give the home side an advantage. So I suspect not making mistakes will be the order of the day for the away sides. The longer the match goes on the more the quality should show. An early goal by either side will upset the apple cart.

Both Derby and Southampton’s matches are priced in as low scoring affairs, with little advantage to either side. Usually these matches turn out to scrappy draws. I think the price on the draw should be a little shorter.

Whatever happens, I’ll be on the lookout for late goals, as that is the key characteristic of knockout competitions.

Ratings: –

Chelsea vs.  Cardiff    Goals: 3.4   Supremacy: 2.8

Man City vs.  Stoke    Goals: 2.8   Supremacy: 1.8

Reading vs.  West Brom    Goals: 2.7   Supremacy: -0.1

Southampton vs.  Portsmouth    Goals: 2.5   Supremacy: -0.1

Derby vs.  Birmingham    Goals: 2.4   Supremacy: -0.2

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Category: Using Bet Angel

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I left a good job in the consumer technology industry to go a trade on Betfair for a living way back in June 2000. I've been here ever since pushing very boundaries of what's possible on betting exchanges and loved every minute of it.

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