Category: Trading strategies
A day of racing you shouldn’t miss
Tomorrow we have the finale to the flat turf season and a curtain raiser to the flat turf season. How can you have both? Let me explain.
Ascot champions day
First, we have ‘Champions day’ at Ascot and it promises to be a real feast of racing.
Champions day only came into being in 2011 so it’s relatively new in the scheme of things but it’s a weekend I wouldn’t miss for anything now. It’s the last shot at a …
Being lucky…
I’m often told that I’m lucky. You are lucky that you can do this, you are lucky that you have that, it’s lucky that this happened and so on.
But the fact is, underlying all elements of luck are two important characteristics, belief and perseverance.
Belief
Some people are given a good start in life, some are not. I wasn’t given the best start in life, but certainly not the worse. I found myself as a teenager a bit …
How bookmakers make money
Back when, ‘I was but lad’, I stumbled into the world of bookmakers.
I arrived there via the football pools and thought I’d apply similar techniques at the bookmakers. But I soon realised there were a few problems doing this.
Problems
The first problem I had was getting the bet on, I couldn’t really bet in the size I wanted without being limited. Secondly, I could only do plain old vanilla betting. If I tried something more complex I’d often …
Seasonality in Horse Racing
Still, plenty of racing to look forward to and the champions meeting still to come followed by the restart of Cheltenham, but what happens as we move into the winter?
There are plenty of highlights around at this time and more as we head into the full on jumps season. For some reason, I know it’s named after a horse, the Tingle Creek meeting at Sandown sounds Christmassy to me, but for sure is an early high point in December. …
Traders of the Prix De L’Arc
At least once a year I will taste some French racing like a connoisseur tastes French wine, with a sense of appreciation but with the gusto of a true enthusiast. It’s the time of year that I turn my attention to a few overseas Racing markets.
Overseas racing
On Friday, I traded the ‘evening’ racing at Moonee Valley in Australia and returned in the early hours of this morning to have a look at some of the other group racing …
Calamity Cambridgeshire
I’ve picked off a few good results from the Cambridgeshire in the past and hope to this weekend.
The race
The Cambridgeshire is a very competitive large field handicap run at Newmarket each year. It’s focal point at this time of year and followed by the Cesarewitch. As with all big, competitive, quality races; fill rate will be at the top of my mind. I’m not expecting a gamble to explode out of nowhere, but you never know nowadays.
The …
Most and least volatile racecourses to trade
I did a tweet recently that stated a little trading fact, that Chelmsford City was the most volatile course. I had a fairly immediate retort, that stated it wasn’t a fact but was ‘just’ an opinion. It was actually a carefully researched fact.
Volatility
I’ve collected data on volatility right from day one of my trading journey and have built up a massive database of data. One of the things I study is how volatile the market is.
I measure …
St Leger meeting
The oldest classic horse race in the world is almost upon us again and while it marks the closing of the flat turf season, tradition dictates that it also marks an upturn in financial markets if folklore is to be believed. “Sell in May and go away, don’t come back till St Leger day”
Come back on St Leger day
There is a general ‘theory’ that during the summer stocks languish and only when everybody is back to their desk …
High probability Betfair trading strategies
Sounds nice doesn’t it, winning positions regularly topping up your account? Please send your $37 to…….
New strategy
With the start of the jumps season just around the corner, I’m going to be pursuing a new, automated, in-play strategy. I did all the hard work last year qualifying what I wanted to do and test the assumptions, which are often wrong. So now it’s time to put it into practice.
It will lose money and on a frequent basis and …
Little and often – On Greyhounds
Greyhounds markets are another good example of little and often. The average Greyhound race only turns over £15k or so per race so it’s really not a very liquid market. Even then, the money arrives really late. but there are very large amounts of greyhound races.
I recently revisited the Greyhounds markets after a seven-year absence. If you want some background as to why, have a read of this blog post: –
Since revisiting the markets I’ve now …
Psychology in sport – Tennis
I started writing a broad piece on Psychology but it got too big, so I’ve broken off chunks and will list them on the blog for your interest.
Psychology everywhere
Psychology isn’t something that is limited to the minds of traders, it’s out there on the sports field and in the associated markets as well. I’ve observed all sorts of strange biases that just don’t have any place in a rational world, but feature heavily and persistently in the markets …
Marmite Monday
It’s that day of the year that you either love or hate. The August bank holiday in the UK brings a whole bunch of racing, all on the same day.
There will be lots of meetings on Monday and about a billion races. This may seem like heaven for some, but it’s a nightmare for others. Quite a few races will attract little liquidity, a lot isn’t of quality and many races will clash meaning that you can’t do much …
Unbelievable Jeff – Trading comebacks in football
I think it’s safe to say we all had fun watching some of the opening premier league fixtures last weekend.
While it would be nice to think the whole season will be packed full of action of this kind, with remarkable comebacks and sterling fightbacks, it’s unlikely.
Trading opportunities
Obviously, a notable match was the champions, Chelsea, losing at home to Burnley who struggled to muster any decent away form last year. I and a number of people picked up …
How to win the Premier League
As the new season is upon us all football fans up and down the country will no doubt have fresh hopes about what the season will bring. Transfers have been done and hopes raised. But what is it that makes a team successful? What is the most defining characteristic?
The defining characteristic
As is well known, a lot of club revenue gets spent on wages to attract top players. This is in the hope that buying talent buys performances. Quite …
More Moore at Goodwood
Goodwood should have been renamed Greywood at the start of the festival, such was the miserable weather that accompanied what should have been a glorious week on the Sussex downs. But it was notable for one particular day.
The weather had a huge impact on the meeting last week and produced a below par performance from me and from the markets. I’d imagine most attendees on course last week, spent most of their time hiding from the incessant rain and …
Had a good week last week? Here’s why…
You may have seen me post up results or information along the lines of ‘If you did this with £100 you would have managed to achieve this’.
I collect and analyse a lot of data and it’s all with the aim of identifying biases and the structural nature of a market. You would be surprised how many markets exhibit biases. Some have exhibited a structural bias for my entire trading career. I’ve casually dropped hints now and again and it’s …
Trading ‘Good-way’
No that’s not a typo! There are two meetings that should get your attention this week.
From a trading perspective, I like multi day high-quality meetings. They usually throw up some good opportunities and are a welcome addition to any month.
Goodwood
As you may know, these higher quality meetings produce extra volume and that can change the characteristics significantly. But don’t let Goodwood fool you into thinking it’s the same as a Royal Ascot or Cheltenham, it behaves very …
Where Angels fear to tread
One thing I’ve learnt over time is that whether it’s short term trading on Betfair or long term investing in financial markets being a contrarian seems to be a very, very effective strategy.
Why does contrarian behaviour work?
Over the years I’ve spent a lot of time looking at psychology and its impact on decision-making and it’s proved a fascinating subject. I’ve immersed myself in as much material as I can find, all in the quest of really trying to …
Trading the Open Golf
The British Open is different from other majors in that it is played on rotation schedule across a number of ‘links’ courses in the UK. Links courses are traditionally near the sea, are near or on dunes, have an uneven surface and a sandy soil. This is in stark contrast to a lot of ‘modern’ courses which are often set in parkland or woods and carefully manicured.
How ‘links’ golf differs
Links golf is very different from traditional golf in …
Gamesmanship in Tennis
It was interesting to see the outrage over Cillic’s very slow service during the Wimbledon semi-finals.
Gamesmanship
I’ve mentioned on the blog several times that elements of gamesmanship are prevalent in Tennis. They are all designed to throw the person on the other side of the net off balance and out of the zone.
You see medical timeouts, comfort breaks, disputes, rain breaks when there are just a few drops. There is no better way to put your opponent …
An Ace is worth more than a point
When you read that statement it looks a little strange. How can one point be worth more than another? But statistics seem to show that’s true. With Murray about to line up against a big server at Wimbledon so let’s look at the perfect serve.
Wimbledon
Wimbledon is the home of mighty servers, with alternate big servers booming the ball past their opponent. But what effect does it have? Some, it appears.
Over the last couple of years, I’ve been …
Why I never turn my phone off, ever….
Most people know the significance of this date, but for a small group of traders, this date has even more significance.
Our story of this day
It started the same as any other day. I was scheduled to do a talk in central London on guess what, trading on betting exchanges. I took the train in central London, as did my delegates and after switching from overground to underground I remember clearly looking at the clock on the exit at …
Tennis – Small margins, large number of points
If you have been active on Wimbledon you would have seen some great matches. But you should have also seen something else, maybe without realising it.
Odd odds
Often you see an outsider really battle away at a heavy odds-on favourite, maybe even winning the first set, but despite this, their odds don’t seem to come in that much. If you look at top player against a lower player, the outsider can be one set all and leading 4-1. But …
Making mincemeat of Strawberries and cream
Here is how Bet Angel can help you this Wimbledon, whether you trade Tennis or not.
It’s packed full of features that are a must-have for any Tennis trader, established or aspiring.
I don’t trade Tennis
That’s not a problem, but maybe you should look at this popular in-play sport, especially during Wimbledon?
Bet Angel has free Tennis bots and can operate in practice mode which means there is no risk to your money. The advanced automation can execute ‘set …
Why Saturday is like a mini Ascot for me
When I first started sports trading, I treated it like a 9-5 job.
I did all the usual things you would in a normal job and returned to my out of work activities after the day was over. Fairly quickly I realised that this wasn’t going to work and was a terrible error of judgement. All the best opportunities seemed to occur outside of ‘normal’ hours and therefore I had to shift my working patterns.
Shifting my workload
At first, …
Ascot 2017 post meeting summary
I’ve been meaning to summarise Ascot. It’s always worth doing as you can refer back to it next year for comparison, so here goes: –
Turnover
Betfair ended up matching, at post time, around £70.5m which was up on last year by about 23%. Last year was down quite a bit so this returns the matched bet turnover to levels that would be deemed ‘normal’.
In the run up to Ascot, I reckoned it would trade around £65m so that’s …
Trading Royal Ascot
And so here we are another year, another Ascot. That came around quickly didn’t it?
For me, it’s another declined invitation to attend the event. While that pains me somewhat, for the moment, I’d still rather be on this side of the desk during one of the busiest weeks of the year. You wouldn’t see a professional footballer work hard all season, only to decline the chance to play in the Champions League final. So missing any major meeting is …
US PGA Golf
Before we talk specifically about trading the US Open, why not check out our Golf trading videos at https://www.betangel.tv
I enjoy my annual foray into the US Open Golf because it reminds me of my very first activity on betting exchanges way back in June 2000. Aside from a small flutter on some financial markets, it was the Golf that launched my betting exchange career. Back then Tiger Woods was being offered at 4.00 for the championship and Colin Montgomerie …
Going Grey
Back in 2010, I commented during some bleak winters months, I had a dabble at Greyhound markets.
Since then I hadn’t done much work on Greyhounds as the return per day didn’t justify the effort. However, since that last post, two things may me revisit them.
The first is some renewed interest in the forum, and the second is the turnover figures I saw when I reviewed the markets at the start of the year. Bet Angel has …
Punting on Politics – General election turnout
I did a little piece on the General election recently for Betfair. Underlying it was some work I’d looked at recently on turnout for elections.
Apathy
When the election was called the markets shifted significantly anticipating a Conservative landslide. I immediately wondered if there would be a correlation between certainty and turnout. But first I had to work out what a ‘normal’ turnout would look like.
I looked back at elections since the second world and munched through some …
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