Author Archive: Peter Webb
I left a good job in the consumer technology industry to go a trade on Betfair for a living way back in June 2000.
I've been here ever since pushing very boundaries of what's possible on betting exchanges and loved every minute of it.
1.05 about to be turned over?
Should England pack up and come home? Traded at 1.05 to qualify last night must have those backers quivering. After failing to beat Algeria, which most teams in the English football league could surely achieve, has there ever been a more defining moment in English national football?
For many, many years we have had loads of great individuals but seemingly no team. Last night showed this up in clear light again and surely the time has come to stop picking …
England’s fate already known
When England step out onto the pitch this evening they will know what they need to do. If the USA get a good result against Slovenia, then England really need to dispatch Algeria with confidence. If not it all goes to the last game. I say this because the English will probably want to avoid the impressive Germans. No point in holding out for a draw in the knockout phase is there?
The US are priced at 2.20 goals against …
My journey – Part two
My early foray into Gambling markets was on football pools. I learnt on the football pools that a lot of the money staked had no rationale behind it. People just used birthdays, lucky numbers etc. etc. The football pools was certainly a bit of a lottery, but it was a lottery that offered the chance for somebody using a bit of intelligence to place better positions in the market. With so much ‘dumb’ money around, I thought that in the …
My journey – Part one
To understand where I am today, you need to wind the clock back to my childhood and the spark that created everything.
Many moons ago I was born to a pretty average family. My father was a carpenter and my Mum worked in a petrol station. My family had pretty unspectacular lineage and most of my immediate relatives lived within a few miles radius. I didn’t get the best start in life (that’s another story) but I loved playing sport, …
Ascot
It’s that time of year when the Queen nips out the house and down the road to have a fiver or two on a few nags. I’ll also be looking to put a few fivers on them as well, but from behind my desk. When I’ve finished all my work on betting exchanges, maybe I will nip up the road for once! Ascot has always been a key part of the summer racing and it’s no surprise with five days …
Impossible
During my career I’ve often relished the chance to break new ground in whatever I have been doing. It’s always the voyage and discovery that I enjoy the most, everything else can take a back seat. Breaking new ground, achieving the impossible, charting the unknown or pushing the boundaries is something that I really enjoy. Furthermore, as soon as the word impossible is uttered, it immediately makes me sit up and pay attention.
Last week I achieved something that will …
Betfair signs deal with Samsung
Betfair’s wholly owned subsidiary Betfair TV has signed a pan-European commercial agreement with Korean electronics giant Samsung Electronics, under which the two companies will deploy sports betting and gaming applications on Samsung’s Connected TV platform which is powered by the Yahoo! Widget Engine.
Betfair TV has developed a real-time betting interface that will bring live Betfair betting applications directly to Samsung’s Connected TVs and Samsung Connected Blu-ray Disc Players. The application uses a direct link to the data that drives …
Blunt start by England
In fact, most of the matches have been pretty blunt, which seems to often be the case in the world cup early matches. England had a great chance to really get off to a good start after taking the lead so early, but I don’t feel there were aggressive enough going forward. England now need to convincingly win the next two games or they could end up on the wrong side of the draw.
No doubt the following image will …
USA 1 – 0 England
Not a premonition but a recollection of times gone past. Until England drew the US in the group stages I wasn’t even aware of this episode of sporting history. It seems England have always been under-performers, but perhaps were a bit unlucky on this occasion. You would get 17’s for a repeat performance tonight.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/England_v_United_States_%281950%29
Ratings for today: –
England vs US – Market is forecasting 2.50 goals with at least 1.70 to England, leaving a paltry 0.30 to the …
Bad light stops fish
A great Tennis trading match today and a classic bit of sportsman ship from Mardy Fish. Fish wins the first set 6-4, Murray storms back to win the next set 6-1. Fish goes three up in the final set, Murray rallies to tie the match at 3-3. With the momentum behind him, Murray feels he can finish Fish off. But Fish does the ‘professional’ thing and ends the match due to ‘bad light’. If Fish was under pressure in that …
Happy 10th Birthday Betfair
It was ten years ago today that Betfair took their first bets. It is amazing to see what has happened in the intervening decade. I joined the fray about 9 days later, I’ll talk more about what happened from there in a few days time. I’ve sent Betfair some personal greetings, I’m interested to see if they reciprocate.
England lose on penalities
Not a prediction, this happened at the weekend. OK it’s only Soccer Aid, but losing in a penalty shoot out on the Sunday before World Cup week isn’t the best omen is it?
Still at least that’s out of the system, so it can’t happen in the world cup, can it? I can’t figure out why England players in any form can’t win a shoot out. Quite a few years ago I ‘qualified’ for a world cup tournament where I …
Soderling vs Nadal – The ninth game
What’s the significance of the ninth game?
In a competitive final you could expect both players to try and play out of their skin. But, you could also expect that both would try do avoid doing anything stupid in the first set. It’s important to get off to a good start, but it’s equally important not to blow it early on. So a game of cat and mouse, probing your opponent and holding serve, is a quite likely occurance in …
Early start
Had to drop my daughter off to a Girl guiding camp this morning. I looped around, rejoined the M25 and headed up to Epsom for a ‘quick’ meeting. Silly idea really, but I had been invited to the Derby but obviously I need to be on this side of the screen today. I felt an effort to say thanks and acknowledge the offer was due. Traffic was, inevitably, a mare despite getting there early this morning, it was not helped …
Oaks
If you would have asked me what the Oaks were ten years ago, I would have talked to you about what the Victorians planted en masse on the green in the next village on from where I live. Now, my first thought turns to Epsom. How things have changed in ten years.
It was the Oaks that was Betfair’s first market ten years ago, but it was on the 11th June that year, not the 4th. So Betfair are just …
Nobody will win as much in 100 years!
If you search this blog you will see the previous post on the Barney Curley gamble. This was a clear cut opportunity, well telegraphed by the market and confirmed by activity and comment in a number of areas. I recorded a trade on a Curley runner for an article that will appear in a month or so, that’s how predictable some of these trades are.
Now we have a full explanation of the detail and planning behind this gamble thanks …
May
I was cursing my comments on April at the start of May. I think I previously quoted that I had the wind behind me. At the start of May, I had a force 10 gale in my face! But by the end of the month things were a lot more comfortable and I put in an excellent performance. Some times the market can be like that.
Somebody was asking on the forum how it’s possible to make £1k a race? …
Tantalising finale
With the impressive Soderling brushing aside Federer in the French Open, we are now set up for a tantalising finale. Will we see a Soderling vs Nadal final? With Soderling having produced a shock last year by knocking out Nadal it looks a tempting prospect.
Nadal is only 1.40’s to win the entire tournament and that looks a little short to me, even given his next match which he should complete easily. I haven’t seen much of Nadal this tournament …
Just do it!
It’s not often I’ll get excited by an advert / commericial but the lastest epic by Nike really captures the spirit of the world cup and it’s affect around the world and on common culture. I think it’s a masterpeice, that’s worth watching!
View the video by clicking here.
Manic monday
Seven race cards with generally average fodder on display, good luck if you are having a go. My advise if you are, is to try and pick up on clear opportunities. With so many races on clashing it is inevitable that some markets will be rubbish, but hopefully some will get just inside the required sweet spot. With so many on, just ignore the rubbish ones and try and catch some quality opportunities. Good luck!
[EDIT] – Just been checking …
Bet Angel on the iPad
Today saw the launch of the iPad so following my rule of ‘If it’s a gadget, new or takes two batteries’ I just had to get one. The first thing I did was put Bet Angel on it to have a play, you can see the video by clicking on this link. Bet Angel isn’t a native application on the iPad, but it is possible to get it running on it if you use the server edition of Bet …
New coalition supports gambling
Was browsing around the net in a quieter moment and read the story about David Cameron moving home to number 10. I was tickled to read this section in the story: –
“Mr Cameron, who said he had “quite a lot of other meetings and things I’ve got to do at the same time” as moving, was also asked to give two horse racing tips by Today’s sports reporter Garry Richardson.
The PM, who was given about a minute …
World cup warm up shocker
You could be forgiven, given the English papers this morning, that I was referring to England’s performance against Mexico. But no, this was Portugal’s electric preparation for the World Cup against the Cape Verde islands. Fielding a full strength squad they thrashed Cape Verde 0-0. You could still back a win for Portugal at 9’s in th dying moments of the match, not sure I have seen those sorts of odds before so late in a draw. Match report follows: …
Murray vs Gasquet
I know British hopefuls will be dissapointed if Murray goes at in the first round at Roland Garros. But at the current market price Murray is priced at only being a couple of percent better than Gasquet. That makes it a tough match for Murray. Nadal is at very short prices to add a fifth title.
If Murray wins the first set then expect his price to reach 1.28, if Gasquet wins Murray would drift to 2.36.
Chillin
There is a very busy period ahead of us now for a couple of months. So yesterday I did something I enjoy a lot, just chillin. I don’t live very far from Great Windsor park and in the Surrey section of the park there are some wonderful gardens that you can meander around. I visited the Savill garden as it’s wonderful at this time of year.
I was so chilled that when the kids went to get an ice cream, …
Doing a Wozniacki
I am now fully prepared for the French Open tennis which starts today. Watched some Tennis last week and saw Wozniacki retire, again, through injury. As part of my preparation, I dusted off my fly swatter and started playing Tennis again. On the hottest day of year so far, I thrashed around the count waving my arms at random. It’s nice to play a sport that you want to get involved in on the markets, you often learn lots and …
Champions league final
Nothing unusual in that this match has been priced for a low scoring, tight contest. Inter are being priced for a slight edge and I think the market is right. Unless Bayern get their tactics very right I think Inter are set up well to win.
Curiously the match is exhibiting exactly the same characteristics as the Portsmouth vs AC Milan match in 2008. A similar match recently was Sporting Lisbon vs Porto. My stats are showing slightly more goals …
New york racing in jeopardy
Classic joke for a recession, I’m moving to jeopardy, apparantly there are a lot of jobs in jeopardy.
On a more serious note however, the future of horse racing in New York is in jeopardy after the New York Racing Association (NYRA) warned Monday that it may be forced to shut down operations within three weeks, with the company now reliant on money from the state to help it through to the Belmont Stakes next month, the final leg of …
An easy way to maintain discipline
There are no end of horror stories out there of people that fail to exit a position before the off and then they let that trade turn into a gamble. If you struggle with this or simply want to automate some aspects of your trading you may want to use a spreadsheet in conjunction with Bet Angel to help you achieve this.
Using Bet Angel you can link to a spreadsheet and automate a variety of elements of your trading …
Concern for missing commentator
Anybody who was trading the races at Hexham on Saturday couldn’t have missed that the Dougie Fraser was missing. Good old Matt Chapman had to fill in as best he could from the booth, but by the evening it was clear that something was wrong.
Full story in a lot of newspapers yesterday. I have linked to an article here.
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