Tantalising finale

With the impressive Soderling brushing aside Federer in the French Open, we are now set up for a tantalising finale. Will we see a Soderling vs Nadal final? With Soderling having produced a shock last year by knocking out Nadal it looks a tempting prospect.

Nadal is only 1.40’s to win the entire tournament and that looks a little short to me, even given his next match which he should complete easily. I haven’t seen much of Nadal this tournament so I can’t speak with authority on that.

One interesting point is that if you look at his next match he is 1.08 to win. That seems pratically a whitewash but the curious thing about this is that this represents ‘only’ a 10% gap between the two players. In others words Nadal has a 10% better chance of winning a point on server than his opponent. Extrapolate this out to a game and on his serve Nadal should win 90% of his service games. One set under his belt and he will be trading around 1.04, if he opponent manages to squeak the first set 1.27.

An unlikely image in a few weeks time

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