England’s fate already known

18/06/2010 | By More

When England step out onto the pitch this evening they will know what they need to do. If the USA get a good result against Slovenia, then England really need to dispatch Algeria with confidence. If not it all goes to the last game. I say this because the English will probably want to avoid the impressive Germans. No point in holding out for a draw in the knockout phase is there?

The US are priced at 2.20 goals against Slovenia with a 0.40 goal advantage. By a coincidence that is the same advantage as a normal match with home advantage, so the market is saying the US are effectively playing at home; well sort of! England are a much more generous 2.70 goals with a 2.00 goal advantage, they should win comfortably, should.

Two mitigating factors in play therefore before England kick off, the US result and how the German’s play in the first match of the day. If Capello is worth his salt he will use these two earlier results to really fire up the team. Which ever way these early matches go, I think it’s advantage England thanks to the timing.

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I left a good job in the consumer technology industry to go a trade on Betfair for a living way back in June 2000. I've been here ever since pushing very boundaries of what's possible on betting exchanges and loved every minute of it.

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