Back to reality of day to day trading on Betfair

17/03/2018 | By | Reply More

Well, that was a really good week. But then I really do throw the kitchen sink at big meetings like Cheltenham,. The reality of day to day trading though is starkly different.

Big meetings and races

Big meetings and races don’t come around that often and account for a very small percentage of the mix over the year. So when they occur I push as hard as possible, it’s the only time I can do that. They probably only account for a small minority of all the races I will trade but account for four to five times that in profit.

From your ‘normal’ trading perspective, they pose a problem. They are so few and far between that, you can’t really practice them easily. So it’s probably more important to ensure you can do well on the day to day stuff. But it’s much less glamorous.

Glamour and grind

Everybody loves a great result and I get a real thrill from pulling one out of the bag, but the reality of trading is somewhat more mundane. If you trade properly then it’s a balance of profits and losses.

When you aim to get £10 on average you really need to aim a bit higher to compensate for the inevitable loss you make when you get it wrong. But if you have a high strike rate then that can mitigate it a bit. A £10 profit 75% of the time allows you a £20 loss 25% of the time and still break even. Tweak those numbers a little bit in your favour and you will make money.

So that’s what I tend to do outside of the big meetings, I just try to tip each market slightly in my favour. I’ll get into the market at what I feel is a good moment and try to minimise losses. That leads to small losses and profits but generally more profits than losses over time.


If you do this over the long term, then this all adds up. Small amounts multiplied by big numbers add up to a very big number indeed. So outside of the main meetings, this is what I do.

I’m not looking for a great result, but I’ll often get one. I’m just looking for a good average result on average, overall at a low risk. That sounds wishy-washy, but that’s how I have worked the bulk of the near 200,000 markets I’ve traded in my career.

It’s worked wonderfully well and, so that’s what I recommend. More detail in the video on this blog post.

Tags: ,

Category: Trading strategies

About the Author ()

I left a good job in the consumer technology industry to go a trade on Betfair for a living way back in June 2000. I've been here ever since pushing very boundaries of what's possible on betting exchanges and loved every minute of it.

Leave a Reply

You must be logged in to post a comment.