Saturday Soccer Stats
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Arsenal v Newcastle, Sat 12:45
Newcastle picked up a point at Old Trafford last weekend but while they had a chance to win the match late on they conceded several great chances and against an Arsenal team that has far greater attacking movement they could and should be punished. Arsenal are also coming off a nil-nil but again that was anything but a chanceless affair. This fixture finished 0-0 in 2011/12 but Arsenal have scored 20 times in their seven meetings since, while winning every time.
Newcastle have had some tough games so far and while they remain winless that is nothing to worry about at the moment. Last season they beat Chelsea and Liverpool here but lost to the rest of the top eight. In fact in the past two seasons they’ve lost 18 of 24 matches against top-six finishers including eight of 12 at home. What is more positive is that they’ve scored in 17 of their last 19 home games – only Chelsea have a better record. Defensively the news is less good and West Ham and Villa are the only sides to fail to score here in their last 14 home games, eight of which have had at least three goals, and four of their last five home defeats have been despite scoring.
Arsenal can’t score at home but in the last 20 away games only Man City have been more reliable at finding the net, as the Gunners have failed to score just twice – at Southampton and Chelsea. There were moments of class in the second half of their game against Liverpool, though the passing looked careless at other times and they appear a few weeks from top form. They’ve won six of their last seven away games and that has come despite keeping just one clean sheet (at Burnley), including four 2-1 scores. While they struggled at the better teams last season with a W1-D2-L5 record at the top nine they were otherwise superb; winning nine of 11 unbeaten away matches with seven Win/Win doubles – which can be backed at 2.4.
The Gunners tend to bully opponents in these matches and they’ve got a fine record against Newcastle to prove it. However, we can certainly see the Magpies finding the net, so over 2.5 Goals looks a good bet at 1.8, while Arsenal to win and both teams to score is an attractive 3.4 and the 2-1 correct score is worth a punt at 9.0.
Category: Football trading strategies
