Willie floor the bookies?

10/03/2015 | By | Reply More

Oh, Cheltenham is here, The weather is great it’s all looking good for a great week.

The first day of the Cheltenham Festival is upon us and the excitement is building to bursting point; well it is for me!

Tuesday has become something of a bookie bashing mission for a certain Willie Mullins, the extremely shrewd and talented trainer from Ireland. The old adage “if the favourite wins the bookmaker loses” has never been more appropriate than on the opening day of the Cheltenham Festival. How can this help us?

The beauty of Betfair is the facility which allows us to trade the prices and then green up to take advantage of a decent profit irrespective of the result. Our Irish friends will be unloading their Euros on the bookmakers as they fully expect – and hope – Willie Mullins will deliver the goods. We all know money talks and as the money comes for the Mullins’ hotpots the prices will start to shrink. Take a back price early and if the money comes the price will contract, sounds easy doesn’t it. Well quite often the simple things work best and this is one of those simple things. We also get a safety net and that is in the shape of the massive volume of money which will flow through Betfair. How is that a safety net? The more money there is, the more stable the market will be. It means if you take an early price it is unlikely, admittedly not impossible, the price will drift away from you. Obviously there could be bad news about the horse but as in all betting activity, you pay your money and take your chance. This risk is much lower when trading the price as opposed to betting on the result.

First up is Douvan in the Supreme Novices Hurdle – a race which is earning the reputation of a graveyard for hot favourites. Who can forget the mighty Denman losing to Nicanor? You only need look back to 2013 when Champagne Fever (W Mullins) upset the hotpot Mytentoryours! If you need some more confidence last year saw Mr Mullins claim the prize again with Vautor, a horse which holds three entries at this year’s Festival.

If Douvan wins the first expect money to be doubling or trebling up on his later horses. Here are his other “bankers” for the opening day.

14:05 Arkle Chase Un De Sceaux – will he handle the breakneck speed and hustle bustle around Cheltenham?

15:20 Champion Hurdle – Faugheen – looks like a machine but already a very short price

16:00 Mares’ Hurdle – Annie Power – if she’s 100% then surely she must win with 7-10lb in hand of her rivals.

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