Match of the season

08/05/2011 | By More

A tantalising match this afternoon between Man Utd and Chelsea and the market is being cautious by pricing up Man Utd at 2.34 for the win. I would have priced Chelsea near 4.00 for a win here, but with so much at stake; its probably right for the price to be a bit shorter. The market is priced for 2.50 goals with 1.30 going to Man Utd.

Home advantage is historically 0.40 goals so if you take that out, the market is saying Man Utd are 0.90 goals better than Chelsea. If you think that is too high then you should back Chelsea. Away teams typically score first around 40% of the time in matches like this, so there are several strategic options available for you. I am visiting relatives for the day so no chance for me to trade unfortunately. But, thanks to the wonders of modern technology, I should be able to watch it.

If you want to do something with more certainty then look no further than the Italian league. The volume leader in all matches for whole of today, when I did my analysis this morning, was Bolonga vs Parma with over £600k traded already. Nearly all that is on the draw, which is priced at the astoundingly low price of 1.41. I wonder how that match will pan out 😉

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Category: Football trading strategies

About the Author ()

I left a good job in the consumer technology industry to go a trade on Betfair for a living way back in June 2000. I've been here ever since pushing very boundaries of what's possible on betting exchanges and loved every minute of it.

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