Know your predicted profit after a Goal

Succesful Betfair football trading

If you are a Betfair football trader wouldn’t it be great to know what your profit or loss would look like after the next goal? Whatever your Betfair trading strategy, it would obviously help.

This is important as, to trade successfully, you need to ‘frame’ your trade around a specific opportunity and fully understand the pay off. Knowing that one piece of information can help you decide how to manage your trade, know if it’s worthwhile and also where to pitch your exit trade/s at.

With Bet Angel you have the Betfair trading software and options to do exactly that. You can easily display your predicted profit or loss following a goal on your ladder or one-click screen. This profit/loss is shown in real-time and dynamically adjusts and updates as the time of the match progresses as the time decays, allowing you to adapt your strategy as the match progresses based on what’s happening in it.

Scenario – (Laying the Draw and show the Predicted Profit after a Goal)

For this example, I’ll use one of the most popular Betfair football trading strategies, lay the draw. In the image below I’ve already layed the draw pre-KO and can see straight away if the home team scores the opening goal I’ll make around £21.28, if the away team score first I’ll make a little bit more at around £30.19.

As the match gets underway and the time begins to decay the impact of a goal will continually effect the price the draw odds will reform at, as this changes so will your potential profit and this is continually updated for you in real time by the software so you can always be adjusting any exit/greening position accordingly while also being able to evaluate your risk/reward at all times during the match.

By contrast if you were to lay the draw in a match with a strong favourite, you will know you’ll have a good profit if the fav scored but if the under dog scores first this will cause the draw odds to shorten and put you in a losing position. In the image below you can see after laying the draw with a £10 stake, if the home team (the fav) scores first the predicted profit is £6.00, where as if the away team (under dog) scores first the predicted loss is -£10.39.

If you want to look at where the odds will at any point during the match but in the pre match period. It’s worth checking out Soccer Mystic which will give you this information.

How this is Done

To do this involves the use of the ‘+1 Markets’ from the fixture, as detailed in this similar blog which shows how you can displays the predicted odds after a goal on your Ladder or One-Click trading screens.

This works on most football matches where the appropiate markets are available on the betting exchanges. Whether you have a betting strategy or a trading one, it should help in the long term.

Just to give a brief re-cap of whats in that blog, by using the +1 markets these are effectively handicap markets which will show were the prices will reform around if either team were to score 1 more goal, then using Stored Values in Bet Angels advanced automation we can use those odds and look up the corresponding profit (or loss) against that price – and that’s what gets displayed to you.

Going back to the image at the top of this blog showing we’ll make £21.28 if the home team scores and, around £30.19 if the away team scores first if you were to scroll up to those values in the trade profit column on the ladder you’ll see the corresponding odds they relate to therefore you’d place your exit/greening bet around 4.7 if it looked more likely the home team will score first and around 5.4 if it looks like being the away team that will score first.

Displaying the Predicted Profit/Loss on your Ladder

Just as in that previous example all the files needed to display the predicted profits above your ladders have already been created for you to download and import into your Bet Angel. In total there are four files required which can all be downloaded from the following post on the Bet Angel forum

Once you have downloaded the files you would use them as follows.

Display Predicted Profit after a Goal.bls – this is a ladder settings file and needs to be imported into your ladder settings area, this will then display the ladder exactly as you see in the image above (you can of course use the Bet Angel ladder settings editor and edit any part of your ladder layout).

Profit Predictor after a Goal (Home).baf – this is a basic rules file and needs to be applied to the home team +1 markets in Guardian
Profit Predictor after a Goal (Away).baf – identical to the above rule but needs to be applied to the away team +1 markets in Guardian
Display Predicted Profit after a Goal (Match Odds).baf – this final rules file needs to be applied to the match odds market.

In the screenshot below you can see I’ve added the match odds market, the home team +1 and away team +1 for three fixtures and applied the relevant ‘Profit Predictor after Goal’ to the +1 markets and Display Predicted Profit after a Goal to the match odds market.

For example, the first fixture is Schalke 04 Vs Leverkusen
So, the Goal Odds Predictor (A) file is applied to Leverkusen +1 market (because Leverkusen are the away team)
And the Goal Odds Predictor (H) file is applied to Schalke 04 +1 market (because Schalke 04 are the home team)

And that’s all there is to it, when you open the match odds market of that fixture and place a bet on the draw (it can be a back or lay bet) it will continually update to display your predicted P/L should a goal be scored. You can place additional bets at anytime to add to or reduce your position and the predicted P/L will continually update

NB,To provide more accurate results I’ve included a condition that there must be greater that £1000 matched on the +1 market, so if you don’t see any values on your ladder then it will be because this condition has not yet been satisfied.

Trading the Home/Away Teams

With the rules file above you are not just limited to trading on the draw, you can use the same rules files to view your predicted profits (and losses) no matter whether your trading the home team, away team or the draw, all you need to do is make a simple change to the selection each rule is applied to.

This is done on the general tab of each of the rules in Guardian, so if you wanted to see your P/L from trading the home team you’d change the ‘Applies to selection’ 1 on the three rules files.