Author Archive: Peter Webb
I left a good job in the consumer technology industry to go a trade on Betfair for a living way back in June 2000.
I've been here ever since pushing very boundaries of what's possible on betting exchanges and loved every minute of it.
Betfair widen cross matching net
Today will see the launch of cross matching on pre-off horse racing markets. Having studied the markets for a long, long, time, I think I can guess the impact that this will have, but I am open minded. Change will occur though, so keep your eyes out.
In-play cross matching produced a curiosity which we hadn’t thought of, so it may be that pre-off does as well. We have collated data over very long time frames and can see at …
Backing a definite loser to win
Bizarre start to the racing at Huntingdon. Nine out of eleven horses took the wrong course, the chase instead of the hurdle course. The end result is that all horses on the chase course were disqualified. One jockey went back to complete the correct course though and netted third place. So only three out of the starting line up qualified as finishers.
You could still back the real winner for large odds as he approached the line and it seemed …
Normal service resumed..
It’s been a good few days on the horses. Excellent when compared to the period we have just had to endure. It’s so much better having something to get stuck into each day rather than the intermittent and erratic markets we recently had. Plenty of markets can give you a bit more confidence and allow you to average out any mistakes you make on the day. Lack of them only exacerbates the pressure to perform and that can be counter …
Sack race
A rather predictable scenario if you ask me. At least three managers in the firing line and you could add Holliuer to the mix as well, despite getting the ‘backing’ of his board. If we do get a flurry of sackings it could provide a useful mid-season trading opportunity. I’m keeping my eyes open.
Good start to Tennis season
In preparation for the Aussie open Tennis later this month I have been warming up on the Qatar open this week.
Best of three tournaments mean that the swings you can get can be very large and quick. If a heavy odds on favourite slips up or stutters, the response in the market will often be significant.
One of my favourite tactics, that I detailed here, is to lay a very short priced favourite in the hope that they …
December
It is quite easy to guess how December went.
With all the weather disruption only a minor miracle could get me near last years December. That didn’t happen and it felt like December could be a write off at one point. But a few decent days near the end of the month salvaged something out of the month but it was still over 50% down on the prior year. Last year did go exceptionally well though, so that decline masks …
Happy New Year
Just a short note to wish you a happy new year. I hope 2011 brings you all the things you hope for!
At last…
Yesterday saw the first decent sporting action since 1492 or something. Anyhow, it’s seems an age since we had a day where there was lots going on.
I tucked into the racing and footy yesterday and had a good day and I am hoping for a repeat today. Fog seems to be the main problem now, not snow and ice. Let’s hope things keep moving along so we can at least have a decent end to the year. Good luck …
Some winter cheer
One look at the racing card will echo what you will have seen for the last month or so, abandoned racing. It’s the worst period I have known in my ten years on Betfair, pretty bleak. Boxing day usually brings a whole slew of opportunity and some top quality action at Kempton. Today, out of the 11 meetings due to take place today, only one hasn’t been abandoned as I write this, and there is a real prospect of that …
Merry Christmas and all that!
Just a sort note to wish you a Merry Christmas / happy holidays and all that stuff. 2010 has been a good year and we are looking forward to more of the same next year. With the weather not exactly perfect, I’m off to spend an extended break with the family. I hope you enjoy the festive period.
Going grey
With the weather hitting the horse racing, I’ve been playing around in Greyhound markets a lot more. Greyhound markets are a different beast from horse racing for sure, but they are viable as a market. I don’t think they are viable on the scale of other markets but they certainly can produce the goods. I can’t afford to spend too much time on these markets but I think they should be of interest to many others.
In this P&L you …
New Betfair charge?
Seems like a lot of people received an email from Betfair yesterday evening saying they will charged £4 a month if they have an inactive account. Even I got one!
My inactive account was an account I used to test Euro configurations of Bet Angel and now, despite my activity elsewhere, it looks like they want to charge me unless I actively use it. I’ll be on the phone this morning to withdraw funds and close it down. I suspect …
I predict a draw (Part 3)
Can you guess the outcome of this match? In total £4.1m out of a total of £4.36m traded was on the draw. Remarkable!
I predict a draw (Part 2)
Second part of what will probably be a three part post.
The draw is now trading at a remarkable 1.42 and £2.85m of £3m on the match is on the draw! To put that into perspective only 10% of the money on the Man City vs Everton match is on the draw, a more rational number.
Question now is what sort of a draw will it be. 1-1 is usually the favoured result and that is being backed in as …
I predict a draw (Part 1)
The draw is a “underactive” area of the match odds market. Out of the three outcomes availble, the draw tends to get proportionatly little attention and volume out of the three.
So, a bit of a surprise to see the draw accounting for 96% of the volume in the match. Not only that but even more surprising to see the odds backed in from 3.00 to 1.30, before the off. The italian football market is a curious one isn’t it?…
McCoy is sports personality of the year
Well done AP, well deserved. Looks like racing’s campaign to raise awareness, and votes, has paid off. I’ve got a lot of respect for jump jockey’s and especially for AP. So it’s great to see it the sport getting recognised.
SPOTY
Or Sports Personality Of The Year in its long form.
Let me declare my interest. I would love Tony McCoy to win this award. Not only is it fully deserved, but it would also give a boost to racing. Let me temper that with the fact that the short priced favourite just never seems to win this award any more. Also, in the general public, there is little recognition of who Tony McCoy is.
Before I got into horse racing …
Something from nothing
Hey, it’s been tough lately but that’s no reason to give up completely. Yes, you can be relaxed if you have worked hard during the peak season, but there is still opportunity out there; even if somewhat reduced.
Despite running around to do the last few elements of organisation ahead of Christmas I sat down behind my screen for the odd moment yesterday to keep my hand in on the racing. Not a great total but I know a lot …
Europa league ratings
Twelve matches and I reckon there should be around 33/34 goals. It’s tougher at this stage of the tournament as incentives to score can vary and so can the strength of teams put out. So I tend to be less confident at this stage of the tournament. The knockout phase usually brings out better motivation in players.
The three matches I’d be most likely to lean on over 2.5 goals are Stuttgart, Lille and Anderlecht.
The three matches I’d be …
Betfair results fail to impress
Betfair announced their maiden results yesterday. You can view the full regulatory release here: –
https://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201012140700098801X
Or a more concise BBC report here: –
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-11989347
The upshot was that the city didn’t like them and sent the shares down 16% to below £10 for the first time. Quite some way from the £15.50 reached on the first day of trading. The results always contain some interesting reading material and now they are public, we will get to see a formal …
Much better
Not only am I feeling better but I must say, what a relief it was today to experiance three race meetings on in the afternoon and some decent field sizes as well! After such a barren spell recently, it was really nice to get really stuck into some markets again.
Despite keeping my hand in the game over the recent barren spell I haven’t been doing as much as normal and it’s suprising how rusty you can get. I’d be …
And the winner is?
‘Reality’ TV is reaching it’s year end climax and I’m looking forward to a boost to my December totals.
Despite their nature, there are sometimes some very intuitive trades to be made on reality shows. Not always, but quite often, opportunities jump out of these contests. So while I don’t tend to watch this sort of stuff, some logic will point you in the direction of a clear opportunity.
On the X-Factor I have had up to £4.5k green on …
Arsenal the business
If you look at the top of the premiership there is a lot of ‘buying points’ going on. Chelsea and Man City have spent a fortune buying up talent to keep hold of a top four place. Man Utd have also spent a lot, but not as prolifically as the former teams. One likely reason for this is that Man Utd are run as a business, albeit a heavily indebted one. So they can’t afford to run the business in …
Cheltenham didn’t bust
Phew, things worked out OK today. Nothing spectacular for sure, but £560 from 14 markets is a useful return to the fold. Nearly all that came from Cheltenham, so the prospect of a decent day looks on the cards with the twilight and evening racing to come.
Cheltenham or bust!
With most of the racing lost to the weather once again it looks like the week will rest on Cheltenham for most racing traders. It’s a high risk strategy as there is no gaurentee that Cheltenham will provide favourable markets, especially with little infront or behind of it. Already Channel Four have asked for the times to be put back so they can cover the meeting, that’s going to impact things as well. Lets hope that when the races get …
No end in sight
Just been browsing the Met Office web site for news on when the cold weather will end. Unfortunately, despite a respite at the weekend, it looks like it is still here for a while. The main issue being a high pressure in the Atlantic blocking progress of a westerly airstream.
I was on fire this week last year and could do no wrong, difficult to be on fire this year. On a daily basis there is very little to be …
Online betting tax imposed
Stark headline for a lot in this sector, but in the latest austerity budget in Ireland there were proposals to level out the playing field by introducing a new tax on phone and Internet gambling. As always, details are a bit sketchy at the moment but shops have been taxed for sometime but other channels not, so this is addressing that discrepancy.
Quite how it will work and be enforced is difficult to see at the moment, but it will …
Lessons from Liverpool
Tonight we are in the final group stages of the champions league. These matches can throw up some odd results as some have strong incentives to win and others much less so.
Last night the market was pretty stable in the Liverpool vs Aston Villa match. Then the teamsheet came out and there was no Gerrard or Torres on it! You can see the effect this had on the price. It is always worth remembering that while football matches are …
The week that wasn’t
I picked a good week to be ill last week. Never will a chest infection and fever be so well timed!
It’s never fun to be ill but with so much racing cancelled last week and some football, there was little going on in the markets. It can be really tough making money sometimes but a complete absense of opportunity obviously isn’t going to help either. But I actually quite enjoy the lack of pressure to perform and the chance …
Don’t pay till May
It was only when my favourite football club got relegated that I started playing around in the relegation and promotion markets. Since then it has become a regular stamping ground for me during the season, especially at the start or end. People seem to have this wonderful propensity to put too much emphasis on recent results or events. Either that or they carry hopes that are just clearly out of whack with reality.
So far this year I have made …
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