Don’t pay till May

04/12/2010 | By More

It was only when my favourite football club got relegated that I started playing around in the relegation and promotion markets. Since then it has become a regular stamping ground for me during the season, especially at the start or end. People seem to have this wonderful propensity to put too much emphasis on recent results or events. Either that or they carry hopes that are just clearly out of whack with reality.

So far this year I have made some good trades on these markets including Liverpool, Portsmouth, Southampton and Blackpool. I’ve got Bolton wrong but got several others right, which more than covers the others. Plenty more trades to follow, I am sure.

With such dominant teams at in the top division it makes sense to look for lays in winners markets. This tends to work in your favour over time. Also, it’s very rare to get a team that completely dominates over a season so early leaders are often a good lay at the right price. In relegation markets, you often see newly promoted teams perform well initially before falling away in the second half of the season. Next season they will often a good price for relegation. Look for early performers to fade and skirt with relegation at some point. A sense of panic can ensue in the market with a bad run.

Over the last six seasons I’ve managed to predict who will finish the bottom team each year and I also try and predict all 20 finishing places, a pretty tough ask. However I have acheived a correlation of around 80% using some simple metrics. Currently those metrics tell me that West Ham shouldn’t finish bottom as there are better candidates for this slot. Also it tells me Blackpool are good value for relegation at their current price. They may escape but the market is pricing in too much at the moment. If you are not confident with nailing you colours to one selection, trying backing or laying multiple selections using the dutching or bookmaking tools in Bet Angel. That works well and offers less risk.

The only issue with these markets is they won’t be settled till next year. But that shouldn’t stop you from taking part in them as you will get a nice bonus in your account come May next year.


After a sublime start , Chelsea are currently undergoing a reality check


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Category: Alternative markets, Football trading strategies

About the Author ()

I left a good job in the consumer technology industry to go a trade on Betfair for a living way back in June 2000. I've been here ever since pushing very boundaries of what's possible on betting exchanges and loved every minute of it.

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