Always be a contrarian

25/03/2016 | By | Reply More

I chortled with much merriment yesterday when I saw the story about how people were saying the lottery was ‘fixed’.

Twitter filled up with disgust that five numbers on the draw yesterday netted the life changing sum of just £15. But as per normal, people blamed their own issues on somebody else. Because things didn’t work out the way they wanted, it must be somebody else’s fault. It couldn’t possibly be down to them.

Flawed thinking

The fact is that people chose the wrong numbers, as I pointed out on a video a little while ago. It was a completely inevitable result of flawed thinking and going with the crowd. You should watch the video, it clearly states why you would choose some numbers and not others. If you are going to win it pays to win big and not do what others are doing. If you do the same as other people you end up with the same result, that’s guaranteed!

If people were logical they would, but the fact is humans are not logical and emotion overrides logic so often. People just can’t help it. It’s a common mistake, people tend to do things they are familiar with or that conform to what would be deemed ‘acceptable’ by the crowd. Even it is it completely flawed. People just can’t help doing that.

Simple but not easy

So being an outsider is the very best place to be. When I was young, I pondered how some of the people I knew made some brilliant decisions, despite going against the orthodoxy. Since then I learnt, all they were doing is being contrarian. So I spent time understanding my own psychology and that of others and that is what led me to always think ‘outside of the box’. To be unorthodox or deliberately seek an alternate view.

There is nothing worse than being an ‘outsider’ though. It feels uncomfortable and strange. If you make a mistake or error, people will humiliate you in an effort to get you to conform. The majority of people will disagree with you and put you under social pressure to adopt their viewpoint.  I’ve learnt to enjoy that feeling and learn that it’s confirmation I’m on the right track.

But don’t do it for the sake of it, there must be logic, don’t just go against the crowd with no reason. There has to be logic.

As Buffett once said about being as contrarian; it’s simple but not easy. But it’s a path I thoroughly recommend!

160316 - Lotto scam

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Category: Trading strategies

About the Author ()

I left a good job in the consumer technology industry to go a trade on Betfair for a living way back in June 2000. I've been here ever since pushing very boundaries of what's possible on betting exchanges and loved every minute of it.

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