Predicting chaotic markets

22/08/2015 | By | Reply More

Took one look at the racing card this morning and was a bit frustrated. Yes, lots of racing on which is great, but just too much. My spreadsheet gave me the following dialogue: –

“There are 587 runners today over 61 races, an average of 9 runners per race.Based upon long term averages today’s racing is likely to exhibit much less volatility against what we would typically expect to see.If all races start on time, then there will be 11 clashes today. If races start on their average start time (usually later than post time) then we could see 19 clashes.”

I love it when there is a nice flow to the market. You shift seamlessly from one market to another and the timings between races can get you in the zone quickly and opportunities seem easier to spot. But when you face race meetings than run into each other, that’s much harder to do. Some markets never really get going, volume decreases and they are harder to read. It’s like being a footballer that keeps getting fouled, you never see a clear shot of the goal.

Today I was a little miffed that there was so much on, that will most likely result in less opportunities. Certainly they will be less clear cut and I can expect a smaller total profit from the day. Today is what we term in the office a ‘stampede’ card, too many horses in one go!

So my response is to try and focus on clear cut opportunities. York is the obvious one, but there are others in the card that generally should be more tradeable so I’ll focus on those. I’ll generally skip other races completely to home in on better quality opportunities. These would be where liquidity is highest and markets that specifically tend to suit my trading style.

Two meetings can immediately go into the bin, those being Newton Abbot and Killarney. 

As the day moves on I’ll reassess what I can do and modify my behaviour. After all Perth is popping up mid afternoon, thanks for that! That could confuse matters further.

Good luck whatever you are doing!

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Category: Horse Racing

About the Author ()

I left a good job in the consumer technology industry to go a trade on Betfair for a living way back in June 2000. I've been here ever since pushing very boundaries of what's possible on betting exchanges and loved every minute of it.

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