Finding value in a football match

14/04/2015 | By | Reply More

Not so long ago I tweeted the following: –

11-04-2015 06-11-25 - Tweet top opponent - Copy

Tonight Bournemouth play Reading away but there is an interesting metric going on tonight. Reading are reasonably, though not entirely clear, of relegation in the Championship. But more importantly they are only 90 minutes away from an FA Cup final.

Bournemouth are in the position of being in complete control of their destiny at the top of the division. If they win every match remaining they will be in the premier league next year. So there is a strong incentive for Bournemouth to win here and not the same for Reading.

Of course this depends on Reading’s manager resting players this evening, which looks likely. My fingers will be ready for when the team sheet in announced this evening. Bournemouth will be fielding a strong team so any weakness in Reading will make the market correct and you can trade it. Bournemouth may be worth an outright punt from a value perspective as well. If Steve Clarke fields a strong team then the market with revert to a much higher price. Get your fingers at the ready for a trade!

But what value is there, how much will the market adjust?

I can look at many, many metrics across a broad range but often it’s worth keeping things simple. So I scanned the database I have of previous matches and you start to ping out comparable matches. Matches that were priced the same in the past. Here is a shortlist: –

  • Newcastle vs Arsenal
  • QPR vs Man Utd
  • Fulham vs Man Utd
  • Reading vs Chelsea
  • Reading vs Arsenal

 You can see quickly that the equivalent match priced up at the moment is similar to when Reading were in the premier league playing a team near the top. Exactly the same as the scenario we have tonight but in a different division. So you can immediately see that information about a weaker team isn’t’ really strongly priced into the market just yet. Whether it is, will depend on when that team sheet hits the desk this evening. If you keep an eye on the market and news you should be able to profit from any adjustment in the market.

I actually wont be able to trade this evening, as I’ll be at the match. I’ve been invited by a director, so I can’t turn that down. But the opportunity from a trading perspective looked obvious, so I thought I’d share. I’ll endeavour to keep an eye things from the pitch side! Good luck if you are trading the footy this evening. A decent evening on tonight, especially with the champions league action as well.

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Category: Football trading strategies, Trading strategies

About the Author ()

I left a good job in the consumer technology industry to go a trade on Betfair for a living way back in June 2000. I've been here ever since pushing very boundaries of what's possible on betting exchanges and loved every minute of it.

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