Manchester Derby

12/04/2015 | By | Reply More
PREVIEW: Man Utd v Man City (Sun, 16:00)

The Manchester clubs come into the derby having experienced contrasting fortunes in recent weeks. Comparisons between Van Gaal’s side and David Moyes’ team at the same stage last season are now long gone and the Dutchman seems to have put his stamp on the side after a turbulent start to the season. Pellegrini, on the other hand, is looking anything but secure in his position as manager of City, who look destined to finish trophy-less this term and may even have a struggle on their hands to secure a top-four finish should they lose at Old Trafford. Indeed, with Chelsea unlikely to be caught at the top of the table, it is looking almost certain that both Manchester sides will be without silverware this term, and so bragging rights following the derby may be the most they can hope for as the season reaches its business end.

Man United have won eight of their last 10 matches and at home their form has been imperious, winning 10 of their last 11. Despite this impressive record at home, there was a sense that United were grinding out results against some of the lesser teams, but the performance at home against Spurs a few weeks ago looks to have been something of a turning point. Untied blitzed an in-form Spurs side in the first half of that game, going 3-0 up and cruising to victory by the same score. Following that match, United won impressively at Anfield and should they continue to perform in the same manner, they could make what looked a particularly tricky run-in on paper, with City here and games against Chelsea and Arsenal to follow, look relatively simple.

City on the other hand, have lost three of their last five matches and the story on the road is even bleaker as they’ve won just one of their last six, losing their last three. What’s of even greater concern to City is that their last two away defeats came against bottom-half sides Crystal Palace and Burnley; games that they simply had to win with tougher challenges to follow here and in upcoming fixtures against Spurs and Southampton. City’s struggles have unsurprisingly coincided with a dip in the form of Sergio Aguero, with the Argentine not scoring in any of his last six matches for City in all competitions. He has however scored four goals in his last three league games Man United and City will surely need their star striker to fire for them to get a result here.

Given the form of these two sides coming into this match, it seems somewhat surprising that United are available to back at home at 2.7. This is perhaps largely down to the fact that City have won the last four Manchester derbies, including the last three at Old Trafford. Indeed, it would take a record breaking effort from City should they come away with the points on Sunday as no team has ever beaten Man United five times in a row in the Premier League. We think this head-to-head record has been over-factored into the prices at the expense of current form 
and simply have to back United at 2.7. For those that want to get the draw on side, there is 1.96 available on the Draw No Bet. Furthermore, since City have scored in their last 10 away games against top-six sides, while United have kept only two clean sheets in their last seven at home, it’s worth a punt on United to win and both teams to score at 5.0, or for those that like a really big price, the 3-1 correct score at 23 may be of interest as United have won seven of their last eight at home by at least two goals.  

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Category: Football trading strategies

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I left a good job in the consumer technology industry to go a trade on Betfair for a living way back in June 2000. I've been here ever since pushing very boundaries of what's possible on betting exchanges and loved every minute of it.

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