Sunday Soccer Stats

15/03/2015 | By | Reply More
PREVIEW: Chelsea v Southampton (Sun, 13:30)

Chelsea come into this game on the back of a thoroughly disappointing result and performance against PSG in midweek, while Southampton’s schedule has been much easier without the rigours of European football or domestic cup ties. They beat Crystal Palace last weekend in what was a much needed win after defeats against West Brom and Liverpool. Chelsea will be looking to maintain their comfortable position at the top of the league, while Southampton will now need a result here if they harbour any ambitions of finishing in the top four.

Chelsea remain unbeaten at home this season, but have drawn two of their last three at Stamford Bridge, although one of those was against Man City. Despite having a week to prepare for the visit of PSG in midweek, Chelsea looked surprisingly lethargic and they’ll have a much shorter turnaround here ahead of their Super Sunday clash with Southampton. Chelsea have played three of the current top-six at home this season, beating the North London sides fairly comfortably and getting that draw against City. Despite winning three of their four games since that draw against City, Chelsea have been grinding out these results rather than blowing teams away as they did so often in the early part of the season. Indeed, Chelsea won six of their first seven games this term by more than one goal, but they haven’t won by that margin in any of their last five matches.

Much like Chelsea, Southampton’s form has undoubtedly slipped since their impressive performances early on in the season. They’ve won just two of their last six matches, but somewhat surprisingly their recent struggles have largely been at home. The defeat at West Brom broke a sequence of four straight away wins, amongst which was an impressive 1-0 win at Old Trafford. Southampton’s struggles recently have also coincided with the sporadic unavailability of several key players, with Schneiderlin, Long, Bertrand, Elia, Mane, and Djuricic all missing at various times in recent weeks. With the exception of Jay Rodriguez who is out for the season, Ronald Koeman has a fully fit squad to choose from and since that is now the case he’ll be hoping that Southampton can replicate their early season form in the business end of the season.

Southampton haven’t lost any of their away games this season by more than one goal, despite the fact that they’ve already travelled to Man United, Arsenal, Spurs, and Liverpool. As a result, 
backing Southampton +1 at 1.92 on the Asian Handicap looks a solid play with an expected hangover for Chelsea after their Champions League exit and a dip in their overall form recently. Given nine of Southampton’s last 10 away games had fewer than three goals, as have nine of Chelsea’s last 12 matches, Under 2.5 goals at 1.85 looks an excellent price as well. 

Written by Charan Gill

PREVIEW: Man Utd v Spurs (Sun, 16:00)

As we approach mid-March, Man Utd are available at 250/1 to win a trophy in Louis van Gaal’s debut season in charge. Red Devils’ fans were left seething on Monday after Arsenal secured a second huge victory in Manchester in as many months.  Man Utd once again face North London opposition here in what feels like a must-win game if they are to finish in the top-four and qualify for next season’s Champion’s League.

Spurs have recorded W/W victories in their last two league trips to Old Trafford – a stat which will debunk many theories of Indian signs in particular head-to-heads as United had gone W17-D3-L0 in the fixture in the first 20 seasons of the Premier League – and only Chelsea and Man City have picked up more points on the road this term, so the visitors warrant respect here.

Although Spurs failed to score in the League Cup final against Chelsea a fortnight ago their scoring record in the Premier League is very impressive. The visitors have scored at least twice in their last seven matches and they have failed to score just once away this season – a 3-0 defeat at their Wembley tormentors.

Man Utd have been difficult to predict this season. They looked one of the most open teams in the division to start with as six of their opening eight under van Gaal had Over 2.5 Goals but they’ve had the best defensive record in the league over the last 20 games. Anyone who has watched United play is probably surprised by that last stat as they often look capable of conceding at any moment at the back. It remains to be seen whether LVG will replace Antonio Valencia at right-back after his terrible display on Monday. United have a better player fit and raring to go in Rafael but the Dutch manager has been reluctant to play the Brazilian since he returned to full-fitness.

One man we can be sure will start is keeper David De Gea. Without him, United would be out of the running for a Champions League spot already. Man Utd have won eight of their last nine home matches and if they drift to 
Evens before kick-off on Sunday we couldn’t resist backing them to win their 12th home game of the season here despite Spurs’ strong away record.

10 of Man Utd’s home games this season have had Over 2.5 Goals as have 11 of Spurs’ 13 road games. You can get 
1.80 on more than two goals being scored in this Super Sunday clash and that’s our standout selection here. It’s worth noting that eight of Spurs’ away games this season have ended with exactly three goals, including five 2-1 victories for Spurs, before backing juicier overs prices and Exactly 3 Goals can be backed at 4.2.

These stats are brought to your by our friends over at Football Form Labs. Check out their site and the powerful software that sits behind these comments

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I left a good job in the consumer technology industry to go a trade on Betfair for a living way back in June 2000. I've been here ever since pushing very boundaries of what's possible on betting exchanges and loved every minute of it.

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