95% return on stake

23/10/2014 | By | Reply More

I thought that headline may grab your attention that the screen shot!

Basically it’s an accurate description on what I did last night before the champions league matches started, only I tend to do it on a larger scale and that reduces percentage returns. For this example, which I am documenting in detail for my course, I did it using highly replicable £10 stakes. It would be easy to add a zero to this number. Harder to add two!

Before each match I religiously sit here and scalp away at a variety of markets. Typically match odds, over and under 2.5 goals and correct score. You only see one of these in the screenshot but that’s because I wanted a ‘clean’ and simple P&L. You can see other examples of this on the during the world cup earlier this year.

Match odds is the biggest turnover market and it’s easiest to get bets matched here. Both over and under markets and correct score are similar as a (lower) percentage of the match odds market but obviously correct score has more selections in it. You also need to be careful about the correct score matches you choose as if they are uncompetitive the odds can get very large and that will make it very tricky to trade with a small bank. 0-0 typically trades at 12.5 upwards so even a £10 lay will need a £125 to do. Do more than one of them or more than one score and you will go past your bank easily.

Once I’ve traded before the off I’ll carry that money in-play and play with it. In effect, I’ve been lent money by the market and can put that to use to multiply my returns at no risk.

That’s why I’ll often get excited about odd happenings in a match or a freak result. With no risk in the underlying market I’m happy to take positions on outside events knowing they don’t happen that often, but when they do that small amount I made before the off multiplies upwards rapidly. Thank you Arsenal for two goals in two minutes last night!

Scalping a match before its started can be boring, but you can see that even on small stakes it can produce a decent percentage return. Compound that stake slowly upwards and soon you reach much bigger returns. The problem I have is there is enough big matches to do this on. But if you focus on the televised matches that tends to produce higher than average turnover and opportunity. Also most people will be working on smaller stakes and that makes it easier to find a suitable match.

Use the watch list and Guardian to help you do this, this means you can flick between markets quickly, easily and you get a running total of your trading in one neat little window.

And with that it’s on to the Europa league!

22-10-2014 19-44-41

23-10-2014 - P&L

Tags: , , , ,

Category: Football trading strategies, Trading strategies

About the Author ()

I left a good job in the consumer technology industry to go a trade on Betfair for a living way back in June 2000. I've been here ever since pushing very boundaries of what's possible on betting exchanges and loved every minute of it.

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