Premier League Final Day Stats – last 15 years

10/05/2014 | By | Reply More

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Premier League Final Day Stats – last 15 years

  • Backing every home team would have given a +6.2% profit over the 150 matches
  • There have been 34 matches where the home side has been a 2.0-2.5 favourite (Sunderland, West Brom) with those teams winning 56% of matches and the games averaging 3.18 goals. This would have given home team backers a 21.1% profit and Over 2.5 Goals backers an even better return
  • There have been 27 matches where the home side has been 2.5-3.3 (Southampton, Fulham) with those teams winning 41% of matches and the games averaging 2.63 goals. This would have given home team backers a 15.8% profit while backing the draw would also have given a positive return
  • There have been 20 matches where the home side has been a 3.3-6.0 underdog (Hull, Norwich) with no particular bias in terms of return. However, these matches averaged 3.20 goals per game with nine having +3.5 goals


Premier League: Spurs v Aston Villa (Sun, 15:00)

Spurs need just one point to guarantee a European spot but given their excellent record against Aston Villa they will expect all three here. They’ve won six of the last seven meetings between the pair and the last three have seen them win by at least two clear goals each time. After a tough first half of the season at White Hart Lane Spurs have won seven of their last nine here. Furthermore, they’ve won seven in a row at home when discounting the top four and four of those wins were by at least two goals.

Aston Villa have lost five consecutive away matches and their last two trips to top-half teams have been heavy defeats at the two Manchester clubs. They also tend to struggle in the second half of matches. Since the start of last season they’ve not won any of their 18 second halves at top-half teams, losing 12 times. More generally in the last 20 games only three teams have lost more second halves than Villa and only three teams have won more than Spurs. At 1.83 to win the second half Spurs look decent value to give their fans a positive end to the season.

There tends to be an increase in goals in the final few games of the season and with neither team having too much riding on this there is every chance of an open game. 14 of Villa’s last 16 trips to top-half teams have had at least three goals and six of Spurs’ last nine matches have had four or more goals. Both teams have been struggling for clean sheets and Over 3.5 Goals is a tempting 2.5.

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I left a good job in the consumer technology industry to go a trade on Betfair for a living way back in June 2000. I've been here ever since pushing very boundaries of what's possible on betting exchanges and loved every minute of it.

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