The first Classic of the season is here!
Jollygreen has provided an overview of this years race and you can see my own thoughts from the video I recorded earlier this week further down this post.
The racing fraternity in the UK always look forward to this day, the first of the Classics. I often find they are also pretty tricky to solve; unless Frankel is in the line up! From a trading point of view, paddock judges can have an influence on market movement. There is always the burning question of have they trained on, how have they wintered from 2 to 3? If one looks poor in the paddock you can be certain many will be hitting the lay button on Betfair and many will follow.
Once they leave the paddock, course judges will be seeing how they travel to the start. Perhaps they look scratchy, maybe they’re pulling hard or perhaps sweating badly. Once again the lay button will be in business. You can see how tricky this race is, so many unknowns and so many more questions they want answers to.
This year’s hype horse is Kingman who runs in the Frankel silks belonging to Khalid Abdullah. You may think I am being critical when I say hype horse but to be honest I cannot think of how else to describe him. He has won all three starts but his winning time in the Greenham was nothing special and many clock watchers were keen to point that out. Historically the winner of the Greenham has a disastrous record in the 2000 Guineas with just 1 winner from 25!!! Does that mean Kingman cannot win? Well no, it isn’t that easy!
The official handicapper has Kingman at 118 and whilst respectable it is not the highest in the race. Toormore (122), Kingston Hill (120) and War Command (119) are all higher with Australia (117) and Outstrip (117) just 1lb lower. So when you look at these marks and the winning time in the Greenham it means the current price is based on potential or hype if you want to put it that way. If we go back to the Solario Stakes in 2013 he beat three home, none of which were anything special. Once again the time was nothing special but he did win. His trainer John Gosden does have a decent record in the Solario Stakes and this was his 4th win.
So let’s look at the race itself. If they all stand their ground we’ll have 14 runners. The likely pace horses are Master the World, The Grey Gatsby and Toormore with the latter being one of my two fancies for the race. When the stalls open I would be surprised if one of these is not taking them along. I think horses like Outstrip, Night of Thunder, Ertijaal and another horse I like, War Command, prominent. Thefavourite Kingman is the kind of horse that can produce a good finish, as shown by some of his closing sectionals so he is likely to he held up off the pace. If you take his side then you may get nervous if he needs a gap and it keeps closing. He is good but his style means he will need the gaps to come. He may find them and quicken up to win like the supposed good thing he is but at his current price of 2.80 I will have to pass. I like the look of War Command whose jockey Ryan Moore will have a good idea of how his mount fares against Kingman having won on him and come second to him! The trainer Aiden O’Brien knows what it takes to win the 2000 Guineas with 4 winners from the last 10.
I am looking forward to this event, the money on Betfair will be strong to traders and bettors alike can get a decent amount matched. Good luck whatever you do.
Category: Horse Racing
