Paris St-G vs Mourinho

02/04/2014 | By | Reply More

Some clever mind games going on this week by the Chelsea manager in preparation for this match. From a market perspective it’s basically two evenly matched teams with Paris having home advantage. My guess is that Chelsea will be keen to keen the goal tally against as low as possible so I suspect a defensive approach given their ‘lack of a striker’.

The stats reflect what I’ve said above, so a difficult call really.

Paris St-G vs. Chelsea

We looked at our historical database of matches and found 220 matches that looked very similar. The market is discounting a 46.3% chance of a Paris St-G win, a 25% chance of a Chelsea win and a 29.4% chance of a draw. Our historical data shows that a match like this has produced, in the past, a 45.9% chance of a home win, a 28.2% chance of a away win and a 25.9% chance of a draw. This converts into odds of 2.18 3.55 & 3.86 respectively.

The market is forecasting 2.38 goals. Historically there have been 2.59 goals in similar matches according to our database. The market is pricing over 2.5 goals at odds of 2.4. Historically 46.8% of similar matches ended over 2.5 goals which translates into decimal odds of 2.14. This is hinting at back value in this market. (I suspect this is showing the propensity for Chelsea to try and not concede in the first leg)

The home team has scored at least one goal in 80.5% of matches. The away team has scored at least one goal in 67.3% of matches. The home team have scored two or more goals on 40% of occasions and three or more goals on 30.5% of occasions. The away team have scored two or more goals on 30.5% of occasions and three or more goals on 10% of occasions.Both teams have scored 53.64% of the time or decimal odds of 1.86.

I think the market has got this more or less right this evening. I’ll be trading before the off with the hope of carrying a position in-play.

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Category: Football trading strategies

About the Author ()

I left a good job in the consumer technology industry to go a trade on Betfair for a living way back in June 2000. I've been here ever since pushing very boundaries of what's possible on betting exchanges and loved every minute of it.

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