My longest prediction yet
Phew, what a busy period that was and the appropriate climax to much action came on to a head at Wimbledon on Sunday. I’m taking a short break now before returning to the full fold later in the week.
I’m having some R&R, not rest and relaxation, but rest and research. I’m taking a break from the trading to go over things like Royal Ascot and Wimbledon. I’ve collected a massive amount of data over Wimbledon, so I need to bed that in before moving on; that’s going to take a few days.
Sunday was an interesting day for me as it saw the effective culmination of some research I did quite a few years ago now. I decided to look at not only how Tennis matches play out, but also at how players develop. I was trying to track and map progress of a player from turning pro to the end of their career. The objective was to be able to spot opportunities for ‘shocks’ but also the rise of a Tennis pro to his peak.
In May 2011 I had an article published about this work, which unfortunately I can’t reproduce in full for contractual reasons at the moment, but I have put a snippet at the bottom. In it I laid out the path for Murray and hinted at how the prospect of him wining a grand slam was still in front of him and possible within a couple of years. This was all subject to probably having to defeat Djokovic. Now, of course, they have met in the all three finals apart from France, and are the world 1&2 which I also laid out as a distinct possibility. It also looked at the terminal decline of Federer and the weakening Nadal as the opportunity that would open the door.
I can’t tell you how great it is to see something you have worked so hard on pay off like that. It took a lot of effort to do the research. But, as lots of people will tell you, looking back is only part of the equation; it’s sticking your neck on the line and projecting forward that shows you it was worth while. Very often you realise the pattern you saw in the past data was just an illusion, so finding something new always gives me a buzz.
So know I it has played out as expected, I can be a bit more confident of predicting the next crop of players to compete for honours and when Murray will start to fade from his peak. It’s taken a few years for this concept to play out, but now I know the concept is correct, it’s something I can use going forward. I can also put some more effort in to refining it.
For the moment though, I’m just glad that Murray has put us out of our misery and claimed the top honour at Wimbledon. It’s a shame my Mum wasn’t around to see it as she was nutty about Wimbledon and it would have been nice to share that moment with her.
You have to say that British sport is on such a high at the moment, it’s difficult to see how it could be much better. Actually that’s not difficult, England 2016 world cup winners? LOL!
Category: Tennis
