Trading the unexpected

03/11/2012 | By | Reply More

Reading 5, Arsenal 7 – This was obvious the stand out football result from the last week. A most remarkable scoreline.

For so many goals to be scored in one match is rare, especially seven goals away from home; though Leeds fans may have more recent memories. But to win 7-5 from 4-0 down is remarkable. I’ve been scanning my records to see if I could find an example, but I can’t. 4-4 draw’s are rare, but I do have a small collection of those and I once witnessed first hand the very rare occurrence of a 5-5 draw. It does seem though that the league cup has a tendency to throw up the unexpected.

Despite its rarity, there was a logical way to trade this match, and if you were on Twitter you would have ‘heard’ me make my decision in real time. Here is some logic as to why a lay of Reading at half time made sense.

First up, there was little cost in doing so, your downside was neatly framed to a small percentage. The upside was unknown but Arsenal goals would most likely give us a pay off above our initial risk, maybe even a full pay off. 4-0 down just before half time Arsenal had a mountain to climb. But, if you are a football watcher you will know the importance of a goal and the momentum it brings. At 4-0 the match was Reading’s, but a goal either side of half time could create a mercurial change in momentum. This is because of the FUD factor. Fear, Uncertainty & Doubt. The scoreline flattered Reading and conceding momentum may compound the issue. You also have the critical break in play and that often creates a wobble in the team or player that is in the zone. Good managers will use the break to re-form their tactics.

So the set up of a goal just before half time, then the half time break gave us an opportunity. From there it was all about when we would decide to cash out. On this occasion I got a little lucky. Before the match started I had already traded Reading and carried that in-play. When Reading raced into the lead and gave me my set up, it was a no brainer to use the ‘free’ money to lay them. From there it was over to Arsenal.

The stats suggested that Arsenal should bring some equilibrium to the match but Reading put in a sterling rearguard action. In the end they were desperately unlucky not to progress to the next round. The Arsenal equaliser came in the fifth minute of four minutes of injury time, a little bit odd. But for me it brought a big result on the match. The timing of the prior goals never gave me the upside I needed, so I let the position carry through and therein came my second bit of fortune.

At the end of the day, opposing teams that race to an early lead can be a decent strategy, but only given the right set up. You also need a sensible return, so a gap of less than four goals is obviously better. On this occasion I had little to lose so went for it, but I guess it may be a fair time before exactly the same situation bears fruit in the same manner. But I now have a nice buffer which I can spend chasing more opportunities!


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Category: bookmark, Football trading strategies, Trading strategies

About the Author ()

I left a good job in the consumer technology industry to go a trade on Betfair for a living way back in June 2000. I've been here ever since pushing very boundaries of what's possible on betting exchanges and loved every minute of it.

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