Trading football at random
If you trade something at random you will break even less commission? Is this statement true or false? If a football team is priced at 2.00 it has a 50% chance of winning a match, therefore you can’t exceed that, can you?
One curious thing you find if you start dabbling around at random in the markets, is the fact there are many situations in many markets when it’s possible to make money even if you don’t do anything clever. This is because events are chained in a sports market. One action either closes or opens another path. As a result, things tend to occur more freqently than you would think it should do.
Take football for example. At the start of the match you could back or lay the home team, the away team or the draw. But which one do you choose? In fact there are actually some matches where is doesn’t matter which one you choose. Sounds bizarre, but there are a number of matches where it is possible to trade on them and make money regardless of what you choose to do at the start. Of course, you can refine selections to improve your chance of finding these ideal markets. You can also find set ups that produce these characteristic more often and, even better, given how a match has started out during the in-play period.
I discovered these sorts of things when I was playing around modelling football. Modelling is a good way of getting a deeper understanding of market without having to spend time data mining or working with live markets. Fortunately we include number of modelling tools in Bet Angel. So have a play around and see if you can find the characteristic I have mentioned in this post. Playing around with models is often a good way to get new ideas and strategies. Here is a short introductory video to one of our modelling tools, Soccer Mystic. Enjoy!
Category: Football trading strategies, Using Bet Angel
