Mission impossible

11/10/2011 | By More

Scotland travel to Spain this evening in an attempt to pull off the biggest shock in Euro qualification history with a win in the world champions back yard. Before we completely dismiss their chances, lets look at the some stats.

The market is pricing in a dominant Spanish performance with Spain coming out winners by at least two goals on average. In the past there have been some big wins in matches like this, but also a few shocks. Overall I found 211 similar looking matches in my database and of those 15 ended up as away wins or 7%. Scotland are priced at 20’s or around a 5% chance. 162 matches ended up as home wins equating to around 1.30 in digital odds. Spain are priced at 1.20, a little short. Spain should win but the stats hint that with such a strong Scottish incentive to win, the odds on a Spainish win are a little on the skinny side. The market has the overs and unders market spot on according to historic stats.

If you are looking for how such an unlikely win could occur here are a selection of matches where the unlikely did happen, study them for potential clues: –

Away – 2010 – Liverpool vs Blackpool – Result – 1-2
Away – 2010 – Arsenal vs Newcastle – Result – 0-1
Away – 2008 – Porto vs Leixoes – Result – 2-3
Away – 2009 – B Munich vs FC Koln – Result – 1-2
Away – 2009 – Barcelona vs Espanyol – Result – 1-2
Away – 2009 – AC Milan vs FC Zurich – Result – 0-1
Away – 2010 – Man Utd vs Leeds – Result – 0-1
Away – 2010 – Tottenham vs Wigan – Result – 0-1

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Category: Football trading strategies

About the Author ()

I left a good job in the consumer technology industry to go a trade on Betfair for a living way back in June 2000. I've been here ever since pushing very boundaries of what's possible on betting exchanges and loved every minute of it.

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