FA Cup Final

15/05/2010 | By More

A curious one this year. Chelsea are on for the double and will surely try their best to get it. Pompey have performed miracles to get the final and wont want to lose it. Chelsea are at a very short price so I’d be nervous mopping up at that price.

Curiously we have profiled this match and it has come out very similar to the Chelsea vs Stoke match on the 25/4/10. Of course Chelsea won this 7-0! All similar matches were easy wins for the stronger side, no surprise there. If you tweak the parameters a bit you end up with B Munich vs Hannover which also ended up 7-0, Barcelona vs Malaga 6-0 and Real Madrid vs Zaragoza which was also 6-0. The market is pricing in 3.20 goals and 2.60 of them to Chelsea. There have been a few draws here and there but the market is discounting a very one sided final which shouldn’t be a surprise considering it’s top vs bottom. I guess the only real comparison you can point at would be Man U vs Milwall a few years ago which ended 3-0 but even that isn’t a direct comparison.

I’m probably going to go for trading any unquoted on this match. I can’t see Chelsea letting this slip, but it is a cup final and Pompey have had a bit of a fairytale route to the final, so a bit of money on big outside odds probably isn’t a terrible idea.

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I left a good job in the consumer technology industry to go a trade on Betfair for a living way back in June 2000. I've been here ever since pushing very boundaries of what's possible on betting exchanges and loved every minute of it.

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