Search Results for 'tennis'
Tennis traders turn blue into green
The tournament in Madrid has caught my attention this week. I haven’t traded it much in the past, but the move to blue clay caught my attention. I love uncertainty, as it often creates opportunity.
Madrid is playing on a new surface this year, blue clay. Officially the surface is supposed to play the same as red clay but the top players are complaining that it’s playing nothing like normal, “It’s too slippery”. Players have complained that it is hard …
Underneath a legendary Tennis match
Not many words can describe the fantastic Men’s final at the Australian open tennis, so I wont try. But to say it was special, would definitely be an understatement. I started the match half dressed having not risen early enough to get changed properly, broke for a full Sunday lunch and still returned for a hour of excitement. Amazing stuff.
The great thing about these matches is that pretty much any trading strategy you adopt will win. If somebody goes …
Is Darts the new Tennis?
Some great matches again at the PDC world darts championship this week. Dramatic comebacks from impossible positions, turnarounds, low odds turned over, high odds coming in, big matched bet turnover. Darts certainly has the characteristics of a great trading market. It’s popularity is picking up now as well.
Its scoring and ‘feel’ is similar to Tennis, you also have familiar concepts such as a break of throw / serve. But a big advantage of Darts is that the games are …
Passive Tennis trading
Missed most of the US open last night as I opted to play Tennis rather than watch it, but I still profited on the matches last night.
I also had a nice reminder of how using stats can show a different version of the match than the score. I won 6-4 6-4 last night, but the first set was quite tight and I effectively won it with a break of serve in the ninth game. The second set was not …
Tennis – Grass vs Clay
What statistical evidence is there to support the differences between grass and clay court Tennis?
Yesterday we highlighted some ATP data that told you the difference in how much shorter a point is on grass. Winning a point on grass is an average of 1/3rd the time on clay. My first instinct on reading this statistic was that a match on grass must be shorter than on clay.
Ever curious, I downloaded and analysed ten years worth of grand slam …
French Open Tennis
If the tournament continues like this it could be very memorable indeed. On Monday we saw the seeded Berdych crash out against a french qualifier. Andy Murray didn’t repeat the mistake today, but plenty of other big priced winners are coming in today.
Even if you oppose short priced favourites, thanks to the volatility in Tennis, the results can be excellent. Don’t forget to fire up Tennis Trader to check out your potential up or downside in each match before …
French Open Tennis
Looking forward to getting stuck into the Tennis this week, especially with the football season now behind us.
Nadal has an easier draw potentially than Djokovic so Djokovic is right up against it if he is going to maintain his amazing start to 2011.
Don’t forget to use Tennis trader to frame your upside (or downside) when trading a tennis match.
Tennis season warms up
With Novak Djokovic’s win against Nadal at Miami yesterday, things are warming up nicely on the Tennis front. Next month the French Open will provide more clues, but it looks like this season we could have some great contests ahead of us.
Miami was a repeat of Indian wells and it provide some excellent trading opportunties. Neither event is highest profile on the tour, but it provided many clues for the summer season. It is clear that Novak is right …
Aussie open tennis
Looking forward to getting stuck into the Tennis this morning. I’ve had a delayed start to the Open as I was unable to do anything on the first day due to other commitments. Plenty of opportunity abounds in the tournament. The good thing about this grand slam is that you can trade it first thing in the morning, leaving the rest of the day for other sports.
It was this time last year that I used the Aussie Open for …
Good start to Tennis season
In preparation for the Aussie open Tennis later this month I have been warming up on the Qatar open this week.
Best of three tournaments mean that the swings you can get can be very large and quick. If a heavy odds on favourite slips up or stutters, the response in the market will often be significant.
One of my favourite tactics, that I detailed here, is to lay a very short priced favourite in the hope that they …
Trading Tennis
The US open has provided some excellent trading opportunities so far and there are probably many more to come as we reach the more competitive stages of the tournament. Tonight the Wawrinka v Youzhny match looks particularly interesting, especially with the way Wawrinka has been playing.
If you get the right set up, trading a service game is a particularly good strategy. With Tennis Trader you will also know what chance the server has of winning the game and your …
Announcing – Tennis Trader
While there are no English men in the Wimbledon for the fist time in history this year, there will be plenty of traders.
This year you will be able to trade it with complete confidence thanks to a new tool we have created for you, Tennis trader. Whether you are a experienced Tennis trader or not, this unique tool will transform your ability to trade Tennis matches.
The problem with trading any sport is guessing how the odds are likely …
Tennis trading lessons
A couple of neat lessons were served up by the Tennis yesterday and both showed that statistics don’t always give you the key to actually understanding what is going on in the underlying market.
First we had the Federer match. Struggling with a vibrant opponent you could have counted Federer out for the count, but a revealing post match interview revealed what was going through his head at 2-6 1-3 down. Federer commented on how the sun was bothering him …
Tennis trading advice
I was asked to write a primer on trading tennis markets last month. You can view the full article in this months ‘Gambling on line’ magazine. Unfortunately I can’t publish this article here just yet, but I thought I would point it out for you so you can read up in time for some action on the Australian open tennis in Melbourne. I have talked about Tennis trading quite a lot on this blog as well, so be sure to …
US Open Tennis
Last night rounded off a great US Open for traders. With an unseeded player winning the womens, defeating the two Williams on the way and Federer losing the mens final, it’s been a great tournament. Federer was around 1.30’s to win last night but that looked under pressure when a call was overturned by Hawkeye and the match seemed to turn from that point. I think that the last grand slam has probably been the best trading fodder all year, …
US Open tennis
I tend to perform better in the early parts of tournaments as I benefit exponentially from shocks. Also, as the tournament progresses, its easier to make mistakes in close matches. One thing that has caught my eye is the rain delayed match from last night. I think the Gonzalez / Nadal match has the possibility of throwing up some interesting characteristics when they return.
I have always been a fan of taking a position during enforced breaks or initiating one …
US Open Tennis
When I have a look at a Tennis match I am always looking for where the biggest potential upside is. Tennis is scored in such a manner that reversals in fortune occur with quite remarkable regularity. With these reversals come very sharp movements in odds. Bartoli vs Clijsters is a good example from yesterday evening, after the racing!
Clijsters started at 1.30ish (I missed the exact start) and as Bartoli grew in confidence Clijsters price moved all the way out …
Tennis trading for dummies
Thanks to the unusual scoring system, tennis matches experience some of the wildest swings you will see in any inplay market and are worth a dabble even if you have never done it before. It can be pretty low risk as well.
I’ve worked for ages to model Tennis matches accurately. I’ve got to the point wehre I now have the ability to look ahead to see where the odds should be given any scenario. While this is useful, it’s …
Preparing for a major race meeting – Cheltenham
Big meetings are generally mean big opportunities for me, so I take a lot of care to carefully prepare for each one. Cheltenham is one of the biggest.
Last year, the big meetings accounted for just short of 20% of my entire year. That’s why I put so much effort into each one. Not only that, while invites are always gratefully accepted, I’m still politely declining them. I intend to do so for as long as is practicable.
Collecting and …
Australian Open 2018
This week sees the first major sporting event of 2018 and the opening grand slam of the tennis calendar as the Australian Open gets underway.
Live scores at the Aussie Open
Some of you may remember, that last year for the first time Betfair where unable to provide the live scores via their API (which is where Bet Angel gets them from). Unfortunately, Betfair has confirmed they will not be providing them again this year. I’m not sure of the …
Why we choke and how you can profit from it
I’ve just finished reading a very good summary of the core reasons why we choke. The article is a nice clean summary and is worth a read.
Basically it comments on how information is stored in the brain and transferred from a semi autonomous region to a more thoughtful process. The semi autonomous region falls apart when it is forced to transfer back to the other part of brain. Your brain can be in the zone, then forced out of …
Marmite Monday
It’s that day of the year that you either love or hate. The August bank holiday in the UK brings a whole bunch of racing, all on the same day.
There will be lots of meetings on Monday and about a billion races. This may seem like heaven for some, but it’s a nightmare for others. Quite a few races will attract little liquidity, a lot isn’t of quality and many races will clash meaning that you can’t do much …
The British Grand Prix
After a successful week, I’m ducking out of trading seriously today to watch some sport and do a few other things.
British Grand Prix stats
The British GP is curious in that, for a non-street circuit, the average outcome is quite variable from Grid to Finish. It’s the least certain race outside the street circuits. 71% of poles end up on the podium and it’s 50/50 whether second or third on the grid will end up on the there also. …
An Ace is worth more than a point
When you read that statement it looks a little strange. How can one point be worth more than another? But statistics seem to show that’s true. With Murray about to line up against a big server at Wimbledon so let’s look at the perfect serve.
Wimbledon
Wimbledon is the home of mighty servers, with alternate big servers booming the ball past their opponent. But what effect does it have? Some, it appears.
Over the last couple of years, I’ve been …
Making mincemeat of Strawberries and cream
Here is how Bet Angel can help you this Wimbledon, whether you trade Tennis or not.
It’s packed full of features that are a must-have for any Tennis trader, established or aspiring.
I don’t trade Tennis
That’s not a problem, but maybe you should look at this popular in-play sport, especially during Wimbledon?
Bet Angel has free Tennis bots and can operate in practice mode which means there is no risk to your money. The advanced automation can execute ‘set …
Betfair trading – Ten years apart
A reflective and rather long post for the bank holiday weekend.
Don’t look back in anger
I recently looked back at some stats from the start of 2007 and compared them to 2017. I’ll often compare previous periods and markets to see what I find. I’ve always archived huge amounts of data as doing so allows me to monitor my own activity, but also see how the market changes over time.
My strike rate on racing in 2007 was a …
The growth and growth of inplay
It seems difficult to imagine a time when it wasn’t ‘all about the in-play’ – but before Ray and Betfair there really wasn’t much concept of betting on an event after the official start time. How things have changed!
The start
Back when exchanges started, it was purely a replication of the traditional bookmaker regime. Similar sports and similar punting styles, but exchanges brought this new concept of betting while an even was underway.
In essence, some markets were ‘in-play’ …
Two books that will change the way you think
In my quest for unreachable perfection, I’ve spent a lot of time trying to understand how people think. There are several reasons for doing this.
The first is to make better decisions myself, sometimes people make decisions or say things that just don’t make any sense. You often also get stuck making a decision which you can’t seem to resolve.
Having thoroughly explored the markets, what to do, when and how (so far) in my career I’ve switched my main …
Luck and Skill in sport
Sport is generally about two different players or team competing with each other. It’s unlikely they will be equally matched in every respect, though not impossible. But typically a differential exists between the two. However, luck can be a key component in a sport as well.
Luck in football
The number of goals in football is low, an average of 2.60 goals a game. Watch this video to learn more about that.Over the course
Over the course of a …
Manic Monday
It’s that day of the year that you either love or hate. The August bank holiday in the UK brings a whole bunch of racing, all on the same day. Then as we drift into the late afternoon, the US Open tennis gets underway. Not exactly a relaxing Bank Holiday!
Today there will be 483 runners over 51 races. This may seem like heaven for some, but it’s a nightmare for others. Quite a few races will attract little liquidity, …
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