Author Archive: Peter Webb
I left a good job in the consumer technology industry to go a trade on Betfair for a living way back in June 2000.
I've been here ever since pushing very boundaries of what's possible on betting exchanges and loved every minute of it.
What has worked at Wimbledon?
Laying short priced favourites has worked well this in the tournament. Also, several matches have thrown up some wonderful trading opportunities to do this not just once but many times over. Hewitt and Roddick yesterday was another great trading match.
Putting that aside, one of the best tricks this tournament has been to listen to the ex-legends of the game. It’s remarkable how well they have called a lot of the matches. Today is potentially another example of this. Navratilova …
Tennis trading for dummies
Thanks to the unusual scoring system, tennis matches experience some of the wildest swings you will see in any inplay market and are worth a dabble even if you have never done it before. It can be pretty low risk as well.
I’ve worked for ages to model Tennis matches accurately. I’ve got to the point wehre I now have the ability to look ahead to see where the odds should be given any scenario. While this is useful, it’s …
Would rats be good at trading?
Saw this article recently and wondered if this experiment would translate into the trading elements of the markets?
https://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/8105963.stm
But seriously, psychology has a big part to pay the way you approach any market but more specifically how you deal with losses, which is effectively what the rats are doing in this experiment. Losses create a pang of negative emotion and dealing with it is a often a critical key to success. Losses are normal, to be expected and part …
Day off
With the racing looking pretty dreadful, the weather fantastic and my wife celebrating her birthday, a day behind the screen was a remote possibility today. Till August 24th, each Monday and Tuesday have only two cards on in the afternoon, excluding bank holidays. Often these are poorer quality affairs.
My advise, don’t kill yourself doing all races unless you feel you need to, there are plenty around in the summer. Try to strike the right balance and take the opportunitity …
Outstanding
Could be another great trade but it’s not, its about your health.
Last year I suffered with my back. It was due to my posture, sitting down for very long periods of time. As a result I changed my lifestyle and also signed up to a posh gym with my own trainer. That has done wonders for my general well being and my back problems are a thing of the past.
Recently I started to notice was that my calf …
Another English masterclass
At throwing away a match. It looks like the England U21 players have learnt a thing or two from their elder brethren. I’ve been switching frantically between the Tennis, the football and racing all afternoon. The Tennis hasn’t thrown up many clear cut opportunities today but in between races I saw England were 3-0 and cruising it. I immediately thought, well they are surely in the final. So I put in a small lay at 1.01.
I think the only …
Is this a first?
Just traded the 14:30 at Folkstone and the favourite was George Baker, ridden by, George Baker! George is a good jockey he just can’t get enough rides due to his height and therefore weight.
Curiously the race was won by another name, Huygens, no namesake jockey there though. The famous Huygens died in 1695. That would have been a first!
Huygens is reckoned to have written the first book on probability theory in 1657 but also is credited with discovering …
Suspect betting at Wimbledon
Yesterday’s game in question featured Austria’s Jürgen Melzer, 28, who is ranked 30th in the world, and Wayne Odesnik, 23, a South African-born American ranked 109th. Melzer was the favourite and always should have been, but bookmakers reported “extraordinary” sums on him winning by three sets to love. He won 6-1, 6-4, 6-2.
The most astonishing figure is that £350,000 was traded on Melzer to win 3-0 on Betfair alone, at odds as short as 1-9. A …
Setanta goes into administration
Not a surprise really but it it’s a pain in the proverbial for Racing UK. A quick interview on the channel this evening confirmed that things will continue but Racing UK will revert to their £20 a month model. Short term there seems to be a bit of confusion over how the broadcasting will continue without funding but the CEO looked confident that it would remain in its current format. I hope so, as the coverage on Racing UK is …
Wimbledon
Two weeks of excellent Tennis liquidity and trading await us. Take your chance to have a try at trading Tennis while it’s here, as the liquidity and range of opportunities are usually pretty big.
Please don’t forget that matches can last days if you are unlucky. So bear that in mind when you first get involved in a trade. You don’t want to get involved in something for a small profit that could trample over other opportunities. Likewise, you don’t …
What’s the price of a good start?
Thought this may be of interest to you ahead of this weeks British Grand Prix. With the right tactics any market can be traded. I don’t know how to price up a Formula one market but I have made some good trades on it this year. My best trade was laying Lewis Hamilton to win the drivers championship, have a search for that if you wish to read why I did that.
At Monaco, the notoriously tight circuit where overtaking …
Is not just about Ascot
While these big racing weeks bring lots of activity in the market you could be forgiven for thinking that everybody is just focused on the big races. I know some people prefer volatility while others hate it, some do well on the big races and others don’t. I tend to never pre-judge what is infront of me or set targets. I just try the best I can using all the tools available to me.
As a case in point, on …
Nadal out!
Big news from SW19. With Nadal out that dramatically opens up the draw for Murray at Wimbledon. There is a good summary on the official Wimbledon site.
https://www.wimbledon.org/en_GB/news/articles/2009-06-19/200906191245412912140.html
Nadal out of Wimbledon?
See the following article: –
https://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/tennis/8085394.stm
This would open up the draw for Murray and create quite an interesting tournament. Nadal’s price has drifted already. The draw is out today and whether Nadal takes part or not is going to have a huge impact. Turn’s out Wimbledon is exciting, even before it’s started!
Ffos flop
Frustrating to see Tipperary trampling over the debut of Ffos Las this evening. I was hoping to get a better look at the markets at this new course but Tipperary is clashing with the start of each race at Ffos Las. I’ve carried on and traded the races any way, but I haven’t been able to get much out of them. Mainly wins but one Ffos loss!
I guess I will have to wait for the next fixture to see …
Ffos Las
Well done to the management of Ffos Las on getting a new racecourse on the cards without too much fuss. Apparantly it is built on the site of what used to be one of the biggest open cast mines in Europe. The more the merrier, Racecourses that is, not open cast mines! Hopefully it will bring us some better quality racing than Great Leighs saw in its short time in the limelight.
Anticipating Ascot
Well the biggest week of year for flat racing is almost upon us and I can’t wait. Some friends and I took all the children to Legoland yesterday so we passed by Ascot on the way, the racecourse is only just up the road from me. I couldn’t resist popping in for a quick peak. I could practically hear the roar of the crowd and the thunder of hooves when I looked across the racecourse.
Excitement is high, but also …
Whoops!
Evens shot turned over, has this happened before? OK, that headline doesn’t sound particularly exciting as this must happen very often, but not like this!
For some strange reason, every now and again, the market goes bonkers and this happened again last night. I got filled at 2’s on something that should have been 30’s way before the start of the race. At first I didn’t realise it had happened, but when my P&L started showing some odd amounts I …
Money can buy you success
Looking at the £80m Real Madrid have paid for Ronaldo you have to ask, is it good value? Well according to the stats ,the answer on value is not clear but on “will it bring success?”, pretty emphatic.
I’ve studied loads of things about football markets including some less than obvious statistics. One of these is whether buying good players pays dividends. The answer was much more emphatic that I ever expected. There is a very high correlation of wages …
Setanta halt new subscriptions
Setanta popped this notice up on their web site today: –
https://www.setanta.com/global/ie.html
Looks like things are critical at Setanta. The racing post seems to indicate that Racing UK will not be affected if there is a problem with Setanta, which looks pretty likely at this moment in time. I, for one, would be thankful if Racing UK survives in it’s current format. I have no hesitation paying for the better coverage you get on Racing UK, as it pays to …
Feeling poor?
Was doing some research the other night for an investment fund I am on the board of. We were looking at consumer oriented companies and arguing about disposable income. I went off and dug around to see what I could find on the average wage in the UK and thought I would share this with you.
Before you click on the link, work out how much you earn and have a guess at where you are in the grand scheme …
Biggest shock ever?
This is what could happen today when Soderling steps out at Roland Garros to compete for the title of French open champion. Before the start of the tournament £1371 was traded at 1000 on Soderling. There is £1.3m riding on the outcome of this match at 1000’s.
I am all green on any winner on the final thanks in main to Nadal’s exit. Given the starting odds of Soderling it would be great if he won but spreading my profit …
Steaming Saturday
Well the weather wasn’t steaming but the markets were!
I guess with five cards going on it was always likely to throw up quite a few different opportunities. It felt like nearly every other race had some major activity going on. I’ll have a good look at it next week to see exactly what happened and report back. Gut feel is that there were lots of sharp movements and I definitely saw a lot of really big steamers. I grabbed …
Epsom
Got a good result on the first at Epsom, lets hope the rest of the day continues like this.
Looks like coverage is on the BBC, so if you want the fastest pictures possible tune into the BBC today and tomorrow. A good comparison for you if you want to judge fast pictures etc. The rain that is forecast is likely to see some strong moves develop in the market as the ground changes. Good luck!
Nine years old today!
It was nine years ago today that I placed my first wager on a betting exchanges. It wasn’t on Betfair funny enough, it was actually on Flutter. They were in business before Betfair but Betfair eventually ‘merged’ with flutter. Betfair arrived in time for the Oaks and turned over around £1700 if my memory serves me correctly.
My first wager was a £5 bet on whether the FTSE index was going to close up or down on the day. I …
Iffy start pt2
I mentioned the horse ‘Iffy’ on the blog some time ago when I was talking about using TV pictures. Despite getting to the start tonight, still didn’t start the race again.
Brown but not out
With the elections in the UK today I thought I would have a look at the political betting markets.
There doesn’t appear to be much going on to be honest, but I think the ‘leader change’ market could get very busy in the coming weeks. Worth keeping your eye on. I like reading the political betting blog which is always full of useful info. A few pounds to be made if you follow the pantomine that is UK politics at …
Britains got trading talent
I’m not really into trading on reality TV shows but the final of Britains got talent threw up a bundle of opportunities. Two key selections threw up some nice trading moves.
After an indifferent performance, the price on Aiden Davis shot out. In contrast the price on Diversity rocketed in after an electrifying performance. Typically I avoid these events but it seems the format of this show led to really nice trending markets and the moves were well telegraphed. It’s …
May
OK, I did these last two posts backward but I thought it was important to get the main points about June out before I reviewed May for you. Also, I took the kids to a theme park today so only had time early this morning to post a little.
May was a good month and went better than expected, in fact my third best ever month. I’m pleased because to beat last June is going to be tough so a …
June
With the first day of June upon us it brings with us two things: –
(1) The busiest month of the year
(2) Some time off!
The first is self explanatory. There is so much going on in June you really need to get stuck into your trading this month. There are so many opportunities on so many fronts that its one of the most important months of the year. I had a blinder last year so it’s a tough …
Connect
Connect with us on the following social media platforms.