Author Archive: Peter Webb
I left a good job in the consumer technology industry to go a trade on Betfair for a living way back in June 2000.
I've been here ever since pushing very boundaries of what's possible on betting exchanges and loved every minute of it.
Snake oil salesmen
Hmm, my post of a little while ago doesn’t seem to have brought a halt to offers into my overflowing inbox.
At the end of the day, what ever you do, everything involves some skill and work ethic behind it. To assume otherwise is just folly. Paying for practical advice is fine, but if you get a system promising the earth for little effort, hit the delete button and put that money in your account in return for some cold …
Time out
Yesterday reminded me why it’s always worth taking some time out now and again. I went to my Dad’s house yesterday to continue clearing it out ahead of it’s sale. So I took the kids and we all went out for lunch and then down to the sea front to mess around for most of the day. It was great fun and a nice break from the day to day side of things. The weather turned out OK as well.…
New market overview screen
In on one of my posts the other day I mentioned the new market overview screen. In case you haven’t seen this before here is a short video introducing this innovative feature.
Auto exit your trade at the off
A few people have emailed me to ask how I ended up winning that £1800 at Nottingham when Betfair failed to take the market in-play. Here is your answer in video form! I like to put through as many trades as possible and one way you can achieve this is to use Take SP to exit your trade. This allows you to put more trades in and hold an order right up to the off time.
The mistake I made …
Positive month
Well the curtain has drawn down on July and as it turned out to be an interesting month. I ended up doing a similar total to last year, but more notable was that my strike rate shot up into the high 80’s this month. It’s the first month that I have used the new market overview screen permanently. Coincidence, possibly, but in a long shallow declining trend this month sticks out like a sore thumb; I hope it continues into …
Rounding error – Follow up
Further my recent post about the rounding error, Betfair have been in touch. In fact, they gave me a response before I could raise it with them! I got a very detailed explanation that explains clearly how the error occurred.
To cut a long explanation short, the rounding down occurred because the £2000 was matched against a number of other exchange users with differing amounts at differing prices. Given the underlying way the bets were matched, on an individual basis …
“Rounding” error
OK, the concept of trading is laying at a lower price than you back at. But if you can’t do that, then the next best thing is to scratch your trade.
If I back £2000 at 3.18 and then lay that back at 3.18 for the same amount, what is the net result?
Zero, of course. But this doesn’t appear to be the case any longer? I can’t honestly see how you could get a rounding error on this simple …
Silly scheduling
The card looks rotten today. From 14:00 we have a race every five minutes and I suspect we potentially have some clashing on the cards. With Perth now lost to the weather we could have another problem. Not an ideal scenario at all but surely one that could have been improved with some better scheduling. And the horse racing industry is wondering why the money from levy is falling?
“Interesting” start
An “interesting” start to the week. No sooner had I started my activity than my PC decided to reset itself, then it did it again, then the TV’s went, then all electricity was cut. A bit of a nightmare start. I ploughed on though, as I have back up systems and that gives me the ability to carry on in a disaster. On the next outage though, even the local mobile mast went down! Obviously there was a serious problem …
Goodwood
Sounds more like a stud farm than a racecourse!
But seriously, this should be an interesting week. I’ve had mixed results from Goodwood in the past but that’s probably a reflection on the one year I had a bit of a mare at Goodwood. Hopefully I wont see a repeat this week. Glorious Goodwood is an excellent week to learn about the markets. Over the course of the next five days you will get all manner of markets occurring from …
What’s next?
The thing that has prompted this post, is the chat I had with a whole bundle of Bet Angel users on Monday night. I offered out an open invitation to talk about anything. Unfortunately at 11pm we ran out time, unable to answer all the 300 or so comments and questions. I will arrange another session in the future. One question was, “Were does it end, what’s next?” There is a natural endpoint for me, its linked to my investing.…
Red mist
It’s funny but some of my best trading occurs when the red mist descends. After the “injustice” of the 14:20 at Bath I am actually performing really well. I think this is because I get very aggressive in my trading.
Typically I recommend to people to take a break if they feel the red mist descending as it can really force your hand and cause you to make some chronic mistakes. My actions defying my advice.
I guess you have …
Time to pull your act together Betfair
Another race failed to turn in play today, the 14:20 at Bath. This time, excuse the pun, I took a bath on my P&L.
I think I speak for a very large number of users, not just Bet Angel customers, when I say that Betfair really need to sort our their suspension and inplay process. The whole process, across a number of sports, seems to be in freefall. So many football matches and horse races in the last month have …
Swinging in the rain
Just checked out todays card before heading off to the Gym at lunch time. Today is one of the most swing oriented cards I have seen for a while. Not perfect, but certainly likely to be up there with some of the most volatile days of the year. If you like swing trading there should be some quality opportunities out there today, if you are only a scalper, watch out as it will be a volatile day.
What’s that ebook racing system really worth?
Roll up, I have a new system for you, for no effort and little skill you can bag £50k a year and Sir, for you today, it’s only, Not £499, Not even £99, but just £37. But hurry I am closing offers on Friday and I only have 20 left!
Hmm, I bet you heard that pitch before, it seems every day my inbox is accosted by offers telling me they have a foolproof system for sale. But if you …
Understanding Risk
I’ve crossed paths with John Kay on a number of occasions, I guess this is because we often have approached things in a similar manner. I don’t know him as such, but have followed his work , attended some of his lectures and spoken to him. I thought this piece I read in a weekend FT recently was a decent thought provoking peice. It tells you a lot about the way people approach risk. It sums up quite nicely how …
Reversed or not?
Several people have emailed me to ask why on some videos the ladder interface is reversed and it is not in others? There is no right way to do this and it’s really down to personal preference and what you are trying to achieve. I had no real preference and vary it according to the strategy I am deploying. To explain what happens when you choose to reverse the ladder or not, I have produced a video for you: –…
On the loose
A good example yesterday of activity caused by on course activity. Skylla broke loose at the start and this caused quite a lot of movement in it’s market price. The camera was staring straight at Skylla when the handler let slip of the reins during a ‘frisky’ moment and Skylla took the chance to run to the start. Ryan Moore could only hold his head in despair.
Contrary to what you may think or have been told, the price on …
Worst trade ever?
I wonder if this was the worst trade ever, or maybe just a blinding cock up of some sort by somebody?
Anybody trading this market couldn’t have failed to notice the sudden appearance of a £100k order in the book. This person was desperate to get filled on the back side and the order persisted for ages. I can only speculate what happened here, as when I looked at the data I couldn’t clearly see any particular strategy behind it. …
The two grand race
Ok not quite two grand and also it shouldn’t have been! But thanks to Betfair’s well documented problems this week, a failure to turn markets in play, I fluked a big gain on one race today. See below: –
To be honest I’d rather forgo the money and have the whole system working as it should do. It serves no one to have a faulty platform and it would be much better to be sure that you know what is …
Buzzing
After many years in the market it’s not often I get to feel great about a day but that’s how I feel after today’s session. I was in dialogue with a Bet Angel user at the start of the session and got off to a dodgy start. He reminded me that it would end up ok and that’s exactly what happened.
I was enjoying it so much I just blitzed through the card, including the Irish races, and managed to …
Expensive problem
This was the name of the horse that reared as it left the stalls in the first at Epsom this evening. I was waiting for a lay to get matched and hanging in there I had turned the lay to an SP order. As the fast pictures boys saw it l0ng before I the price shot out and the SP returned was dreadful. What was a nice profit turned into, well, an expensive problem!
Ashes
I’m looking forward to the Ashes and if the markets are anything like the last time the Ashes were held in the UK, we could be in for a treat. I remember visiting Betfair’s offices just after the last test finished. It had turnover of £32m or something similar. There was a lot excitement and activity last time around.
I must admit to not having done much Cricket trading. It still remains a relatively untouched area for me. I have …
Another meeting abandoned
Last week we had a meeting abandoned because they couldn’t get enough water on course. This week we appear to have too much. Uttoxeter has been abandoned this evening in another embarrassment for the racing industry. I’d understand the odd one but these ‘freak events’ do seem to occur with amazing regularity!
It’s been a really disjointed start to the week, I hope it gets better from here.
https://www.racingpost.com/news/horse-racing/waterlogged-uttoxeter-abandons-evening-card/605914/
7/7
Most people know the significance of this date, but for a small group of traders this date has even more significance.
On that very day I was scheduled to do a talk in central London on guess what, trading on betting exchanges. Obviously, in the ensuing chaos, we all arrived a little late. A few of us had directly got caught up in the bombings but nobody was seriously hurt, just a few bumps and some confusion. While it may …
Great end to Wimbledon
What a fantastic tournament that was. Opportunities seemed to pop out of the tennis court all over the place and we finished with an epic final. £53m was traded on the final, £49m on Federer!
There were several opportunities to lay Federer at short odds and as the match wore on your could easily see it heading for a fifth set. During that fifth set it was very even, but as we strayed into the final stages of that titanic …
Opinion
Thank you for reading this blog. I trust you get something out of reading it and based on the tons of emails I receive, a lot of you do. That’s pleasing to know.
You should always welcome opinion and whether you agree with it or not, its important if it provokes thought or debate. Asking “why?” is a great human gift. However, if opinion isn’t voiced for constructive debate, it serves nobody. Let me tell you where my opinions are …
Balls up at Bellewstown
Inbetween the two UK evenings races I tuned into the Irish racing. Saw a horse being led to the start. Suddenly the race is off, oh dear, it looks like they went without him. He was very heavily backed and there could be a lot of fall out from this one! I put a trade in but reversed it when I wasn’t sure what was going on. As I type, 40 minutes later, there still seems to be no decision …
Look over your shoulder
When trading it’s easy to get carried away with a move in the market. The prices is rising and you instinctively want to follow it as it charges off in one direction or another. You sit there and ponder your move then make the decision to jump in. Just as you do it goes the other way and you sit there waiting for it to rebound into profit, it continues to fall and then you can’t stand it any more …
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