Author Archive: Peter Webb
I left a good job in the consumer technology industry to go a trade on Betfair for a living way back in June 2000.
I've been here ever since pushing very boundaries of what's possible on betting exchanges and loved every minute of it.
Ladbrokes results
There is a summary here: –
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-12490900
Or the full detail here: –
https://www.ladbrokesplc.com/media-centre/press-releases/releases-2011/2011-02-17.aspx
A mixed bag of results, but pretty good given the underlying weakness in core markets. Labrokes is still 3-4 times the size of Betfair depending on how you measure it.
Champions league
Well that was a cracking start to the champions league knock out stages!
The cat has been well and truly put amongst the pigeons with Spurs win in Milan. Harry’s steps towards legendary status are getting quite common now. Can Arsenal over turn Barcelona this evening? It would be a memorable night if they could and this match has my attention. Arsenal can’t afford to concede but must really win to have any chance in Barcelona. Barca will have no …
This evenings European football
The two key champions league matches don’t look exciting prospects from my viewpoint. Two home wins on the card and two away teams that will be trying to avoid defeat. The first leg in these cases don’t throw up many clear opportunities usually. It’s the second leg that is often more interesting given what happens in the first.
The match that has caught my eye today is the Aris vs Man City match. Man City are quite short but should …
Dubai far from a failure for Woods
OK, Woods may have flunked the last round in Dubai but it seems other ventures in Dubai worked out quite nicely, even though they didn’t!
Another difficult day for racing
Racing hasn’t had it easy this winter. Over half the meetings lost in December, November wasn’t a bundle of joy and the start of the year hasn’t really gone to plan.I am struggling to remember when we last had a normal week.
Lots of good thoroughbreds need a decent run out ahead of Cheltenham, but few are getting one. Just when you think you have seen it all; we see, on what was going to be a great days racing, …
Dubai desert classic
Received a useful tip earlier in the week about Thomas Aiken. Six of the last seven tournaments he has finished in the top 20 and was available at 120’s. After the first round he is five under par, in second place and in to 25’s. I’ve also backed Sterne at 440 to 50’s, Martin 450 to 75 and a fair few others.
No trading out for me until they finish the second round. All I need now is a …
Football rich list
It is always interesting to read the Deloitte reports. They seem to highlight the significant, and growing, gap between footballs elite clubs and the rest.
Seven of the top ten clubs come from the English premiership. The top clubs even in this elite division are pulling away from the others.
https://www.deloitte.com/view/en_GB/uk/press-release/0966fd0057101210VgnVCM100000ba42f00aRCRD.htm
But there are still a large number of structural issues in the game.
Dogs
Had a quick go at the televised Greyhound racing last night. Nothing special but a satisfactory result. There are lots of greyhound races on each day and if you have never tried it, it is worth giving it a go. Volumes can reach £10-20k per race and the markets are a little illiquid, but they are a decent supplement to horse racing for smaller users.
Where Angel’s don’t fear to tread
Just over a week ago we had the Betfair upgrade and first outage.
Betfair has a chequered history of outage’s, but have been much better in recent years. Because Bet Angel was around before the API was created, we have always maintained a dual mode of operation. You can connect to Betfair via non API (The website) or API modes.
I tend to connect by the API but I have both available at all times, just in case there is …
Down, Down
I would like to give you an update as to how February is going, I’ll let you know when I can log into Betfair!
It’s been the worst week for Betfair for some time. If Betfair would like to offer up some more detailed explanation I am sure we can all make a better judgement as to why the site is less stable than ever recently. In the absence of that we will have to speculate why a company that …
The impact of transfers
Back before the start of the season I tipped a number of teams to struggle and managers likely to leave their jobs, by and large I have been spot on. A couple of surprises, but come the end of the season I’d should be well up on the deal over the course of the season. So, how did I find these opportunities? Just one word, money!
That money makes the world go around is true and none more so in …
Pub landlady wins EU case
Venues showing live Premier League matches from foreign broadcasters are not breaking EU law, court advised.
Full story here: –
https://www.guardian.co.uk/media/2011/feb/03/eu-law-sports-rights
This could make a big change in the financing of the premier league.
Twitter feed
In case you were not aware we do have a twitter feed. You can view it at: –
We have played around with it on and off for some time, just putting in thoughts and notes as they occur. You can see the current tweets there at the moment which will have been useful for you. If there is enough interest we will continue doing so.
Ouch!
You have to feel sorry for money chasers sometimes. On Sunday we saw one of those ‘classic’ horse racing moments when a horse, that traded at 1.09 before the off, fell at the first hurdle at Fakenham.
That said, I don’t feel that sorry for money chasers as when I see something at short odds I instinctively try to oppose it. Low downside and high upside is just too tempting to resist. Therefore I will always look for an opportunity …
Betfair maintenance
Unfortunately it looks like this Betfair ‘maintenance’ did not go well and the API is not working as expected. Numerous other issues have been occuring since the site came back. With Ludlow cancelled this is is a clear indication that today will be an inactive day. A frustrating end to the month.
If you still want to log into Betfair, the API is currently reported as being down. But if you are using the very latest version of Bet Angel, …
NH Racing
OK I know that the NH stands for national hunt, but it may as well mean No Horse Racing. If Racing wants to know why its industry is in decline take a hard look at today.
Another big race meeting is lost to weather. Some low quality and small fields at Lingfield which are of little interest. Those races go off five minutes before Cheltenham so little time to build up to the big races, then Cheltenham clashes …
Murray match in charts
If you want an insight into how odds move in a Tennis match we will be posting up charts at key points of the Ferrer vs Murray Austrailian open semi final today.
To view the charts, click here to read the thread on the forum.
Press the flesh
A half day for me today on the trading front as I went to Earls Court to ‘press the flesh’ at a gaming and betting exhibition. I’ll often go to these events as, while they are mainly trade, there are a lot people that I know there. It’s also interesting to see what’s out there and to catch up with a few people.
One surprise was to see several “Soccer Mystic / Tennis trader” type products there from software vendors …
Fireworks in Melbourne
Happy Australia day to our antipodean users this morning!
Some decent late night / early morning activity in Melbourne this morning as an injured Nadal struggles to fight of Ferrer in his quarter final match. This could be a significant moment in the tournament, so tune in immediately to take advantage if you can. When the Australia day fireworks force a break in this game the trainer can treat Nadal and that could be a pivotal moment.
Pool lined with gold
What a season Blackpool are having and the tactic when the tangerines are playing is really simple. If they are at large odds at home, back them.
This may sound obvious but if you want to understand the full subtly of this tactic then fire up Soccer Mystic point it to any match where a team is large odds at home and look at what happens to the projected odds in the first half.
You wouldn’t have needed to do …
2010
Already near the end of January and I realise I haven’t talked about what happened last year.
2010 was very satisfactory and I evolved further during the year. Each year that passes I learn more and more how the markets work and why they are priced the way they are. I think this is the thing that I enjoy most, the discovery. Whatever I am doing, I will often have a pen and paper handy in case some amazing thought …
Kauto can’t
Last week I asked if Kauto can, but it seems he can’t. With no racing of note on today I thought I’d review this race for you.
The 11 year old isn’t the same horse as previous years, no surprise there. But it was disappointing to not have another historic moment in racing. There haven’t been many over the last year and it’s nice to hang a news story on these things. I think racing has missed out as a …
Overnight success
How would you like to go to bed only to wake up in the morning to a successful trade?
While I’m enjoying doing the Austrailian open, a lot of the early round matches take place at hours I just can’t cover. Judging by the liquidity, this is the case for a lot of people in this market. So, why not take a different angle on things and place some trades to get matched overnight in-play?
Using Tennis trader, I …
Levy debate starts in parliament
Three hours of debate has just started in Parliament about the future of the Horse Racing levy. Tune into BBC Parliament to hear the MP’s debate: –
https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/tv/bbc_parliament/watchlive
Betfair crash
Quite a serious outage this evening, or outrage as some will nickname it. The site has been offline for nearly two hours now. We hope you are not too badly affected by the crash.
We do have some clever things built into Bet Angel such as connection modes that can help during certain types of crash, but this seems to be a complete outage on Betfair’s behalf. We look forward to learning what the cause was.
Bookmakers still alive and well
William Hill came out with a year end statement today and the headline results were pretty good. Net revenue is expected to come in up 7% on the year delivering EBITDA of around £275m up from £258m in the prior year. Online revenue has grown 24% with sportsbook turnover up 57%.
One other note from the statement was that 47% of scheduled UK racing meetings were cancelled in December.
Full results will be out in late February. It seems traditional …
Aussie open tennis
Looking forward to getting stuck into the Tennis this morning. I’ve had a delayed start to the Open as I was unable to do anything on the first day due to other commitments. Plenty of opportunity abounds in the tournament. The good thing about this grand slam is that you can trade it first thing in the morning, leaving the rest of the day for other sports.
It was this time last year that I used the Aussie Open for …
Adopt Arsenal business model
If you remember this post where I was commenting on how impressed I was with Arsenal’s business model. Well it seems FIFA is as well.
https://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/football/9358589.stm
I think, for the long term future of the game, it makes sense to engage on sensible terms.
I remember when I was young. I would pay £1.50 to stand on the terraces, stuffing my face with a hot dog, getting smoke wafted in my face, BUT you really could believe that your team …
O’Neill new manager of West Ham?
BBC report O’Neill to take over at West Ham after the match today: –
https://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/football/teams/w/west_ham_utd/9362709.stm
Lay West Ham to be relegated I reckon, if its true.
Can Kauto?
Easy to spot the key interest today on the horse racing front when Kauto Star will try to make history at Kempton park. Such is the interest in this and the sentiment I suspect his price will shorten through the day so for once I am on early on this. It should be an interesting market and an interesting race, so I hope it turns out that way.
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