Poll straw – Trump trumped
An interesting set of results came in from the US caucuses last night. But it highlighted again that people don’t tell the truth to pollsters. I think I can explain.
Everybody hates an outsider
Nobody likes to be an outsider, apart from me it seems. But being an outsider is where some of the best decisions can be made. However it takes a great deal of strength to be different. So when a pollster phones you or harrases you in the street at a polling station its the brain age equivalent of a threat. You force an emotional reaction.
Emotion
When you let emotion dictate a response you can pretty reliably predict how people will respond. In the case of polls, ‘I’ll act defensive and just say what I think they want to hear’. It’s like you are roaming an ancient landscape and see a bear in your way, you go and rationalise with the bear about why you are not a threat or do you take evasive action. When put under pressure, people instinctively act defensively.
Logic
When you engage your real rather than primitive brain then the result is remarkably different. As you evaluate the situation rationally you start putting all the pieces of the puzzle together. You think it through carefully and make a decision based on all outcomes. Sat in the quiet surroundings of the ballot box you start to make a judgement. Well, most of the time.
So I hypothesise that polls, especially political, are always likely to be errant unless you can survey in a way that doesn’t evoke emotion. From a trading perspective that’s ideal, as this often means that the market pricing is often likely to be errant. Trading heaven.
Category: Trading strategies
