I think I’ve spotted a trend!

04/11/2015 | By | 2 Replies More

I must admit, the Melbourne Cup Carnival has got off to a slow start for me this year. So I thought I’d better check on whether I was underperforming, or whether there was something else going on.

Something else in going on.

I took the first two days of the Carnival from my records and analysed total turnover in the markets for those two days. Obviously it started from a lower base some time ago, but the peak was in 2011 when the first two days pulled in nearly £18m in matched bet turnover.

From there it’s been downhill all the way. It dropped sharply in 2012 then levelled off somewhat with a gentle decline. But in post Betfair / Crown era its taken quite a big hit. It’s currently down nearly 3o% against last year. That’s significant. It’s also down nearly 50% of what it was at it’s peak, so that’s massive.

I don’t have significant visibility on what Betfair  / Crown are doing in Australia, but given these numbers it wouldn’t seem to be much. Though, as always, I’ll remain positive till the end of the carnival and I’ll report back if the numbers end up the same by the end of it.

If so, it will probably shape how I approach things next year.

Melbourne Cup turnover

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Category: Australian, Horse Racing

About the Author ()

I left a good job in the consumer technology industry to go a trade on Betfair for a living way back in June 2000. I've been here ever since pushing very boundaries of what's possible on betting exchanges and loved every minute of it.

Comments (2)

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  1. Peter Webb says:

    For more information on this post visit this thread on the forum: –


  2. Peter Webb says:

    In the end the trend held and in local sterling terms the last two days replicated the first two in terms of performance.

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