Early season expectations

27/06/2015 | By | Reply More

A interesting write up brought to your by our friends over at Football Form Labs. Check out their site and the powerful software that sits behind these comments.

[Peter – I’ve also looked into the start of the season for opportunities to lay or back teams with difficult or easy starts. Bournemouth and Norwich have a fair start but descend into some really tough fixtures as the season warms up. You can use this information and the sort of stuff produced here to get some value before a team reverts to mean, which they nearly always do! Keep an eye on signings as well.]

Given the excitement surrounding the release of the fixtures for the 2015/16 Premier League season we have looked at the effect the order of their fixtures will have on their fortunes for the upcoming season. We’ve left out the three promoted sides and for the teams that have fixtures against Bournemouth, Watford, and Norwich in their opening 10 games we’ve switched these sides with the three teams that went down. Effectively, Bournemouth have taken Hull’s place, Watford have replaced Burnley, and Norwich are the new QPR.Below is how the Premier League will look after 10 games if the 17 teams that competed in the Premier League last season pick up exactly the same results this time around as they did in the corresponding fixtures last term. 

Position Team Pts
1 Chelsea 23
2 Arsenal 22
3 Man Utd 22
4 Swansea 18
5 Man City 16
6 West Ham 16
7 Stoke 16
8 Liverpool 14
9 West Brom 14
10 Southampton 13
11 Everton 12
12 Sunderland 12
13 Tottenham 11
14 Crystal Palace 11
15 Leicester 11
16 Aston Villa 11
17 Newcastle 8
Unsurprisingly, champions Chelsea would be top of the league after 10 games if every team reproduced their results from last season, but they would have both Arsenal and Man Utd in close proximity. Man City, conversely, would be seven points off the top spot already, with Garry Monk’s impressive Swansea side replacing them in that all important top-four. The other contenders for the top-four spot, Liverpool and Spurs would be well off the pace while Newcastle would be slightly adrift at the foot of the table and the ‘McClaren Out’ banners would be getting readied.We can also compare these teams in their relevant long-term markets to see if there might be some value in taking or opposing an early position.

Team Price to Win PL 15/16 Expected 10 Game Pts
Chelsea 2.5 23
Man City 3.75 16
Arsenal 6 22
Man Utd 6.5 22
Liverpool 34 14
Tottenham 126 11
     
Team W/O Big 6 15/16 Expected 10 Game Pts
Southampton 3 13
Everton 3.75 12
Swansea 11 18
West Ham 11 16
Stoke 13 16
Newcastle 21 8
Crystal Palace 21 11
     
Team Relegation 15/16 Expected 10 Game Pts
Sunderland 3.5 12
Leicester 5.5 11
Aston Villa 6 11
West Brom 6 14

Man City will have to significantly improve upon their results in the corresponding fixtures last season if they are to live up to their billing of second favourites for the title and it certainly looks a good idea to wait a couple of months before thinking about backing them as if, after 10 games, they are a couple of points off the lead their price may not have changed much but they should be a much better proposition than they are now.

Arsenal and Man Utd arguably look better value alternatives to Chelsea at this stage while it could pay to oppose Spurs and Liverpool for a top four finish straight away.

Swansea, or even West Ham and Stoke, look like value in the “Without the Big 6” market if they can replicate last season’s results early on but given the expected early struggles for Liverpool and Spurs the 17.0 on Swansea to finish in the top six may look a fantastic price by the end of October.

Newcastle should probably be shorter than the 6.5 currently being quoted for them to be relegated if they reproduce what they did last season this time around and they may be hoping for the promoted teams to struggle, although Bournemouth and Norwich will probably be very content with their games in the opening quarter of the season. 

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Category: Football trading strategies

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I left a good job in the consumer technology industry to go a trade on Betfair for a living way back in June 2000. I've been here ever since pushing very boundaries of what's possible on betting exchanges and loved every minute of it.

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