Saturday Soccer Stats – Do refs affect goals?
With QPR having lost six of their last seven matches things are looking bad for the promoted side, especially as they only have two remaining home games against current bottom-half teams and those are against arguably the two best sides in that half of the table, Everton and Newcastle. When hosting the current top-half sides this term, QPR have failed to win in seven attempts (W0-D3-L4). Home or away against these sides their record is a less than stellar W0-D3-L12 although they have kept things level until half-time in six of the seven at home. In fact over the last 20 games only Leicester have had as many Draw/Loss doubles (seven) and it looks as if the promoted teams are struggling at the end of their matches.
Spurs have been in good form as they’ve won five of their last eight away matches, and defeats at Chelsea and Liverpool are understandable. Moreover, they’ve scored at least twice in six consecutive matches and they have a superb record against promoted teams since 2012/13, having won 14 of 15 matches home and away.
However, Spurs have conceded in 10 of their last 11 away matches and in 12 of their last 13 trips to bottom-half teams so it may not be an easy away win. They’ve won nine of their last 15 trips to bottom-half teams but were ahead at half-time in just four of the nine wins and six were despite conceding.
Half of QPR’s last 12 home games have had at least three goals with five having four or more and they’ve shown an ability to score this season. However, Spurs should win this, particularly with the bite of Joey barton missing from the QPR midfield. Rather than take the 1.85, though, we prefer the extra value of Spurs to Win with Both Teams to Score at 3.75 or the Draw/Spurs double at 5.0. Furthermore, correct score backers might have noted that four of Spurs’ last five away wins have been 2-1 scores and that can be backed at 9.0. We’ve pointed out some strong over-goals stats in this game and Over 3.0 Goals is a tempting 2.25 while Over 1.5 Spurs Goals can be backed at 1.83.
| Referee | Matches since 05/06 | Average Goals per Game |
| Phil Dowd | 237 | 2.90 |
| Andre Marriner | 184 | 2.86 |
| Michael Oliver | 100 | 2.82 |
| Kevin Friend | 109 | 2.79 |
| Anthony Taylor | 95 | 2.78 |
| Mike Dean | 256 | 2.78 |
| Mike Jones | 127 | 2.72 |
| Chris Foy | 217 | 2.71 |
| Mark Clattenburg | 202 | 2.68 |
| Jonathan Moss | 76 | 2.67 |
| Neil Swarbrick | 63 | 2.67 |
| Lee Mason | 166 | 2.66 |
| Stuart Attwell | 45 | 2.51 |
| Martin Atkinson | 244 | 2.50 |
| Craig Pawson | 27 | 2.48 |
It is important therefore to see how these statistics translate into the match goals markets by looking at the percentage of each referee’s Premier League games that had Over/Under 2.5 goals, as well as those that had Over 3.5 goals, and then compare the respective returns on investment.
This shows that the two strongest ‘overs’ referees are Phil Dowd and Mike Dean, as backing Over 2.5 goals in each of their games would have seen you return a 4% and 2% profit respectively, with O3.5 goals returning a 5% profit from Dowd’s games and 6% from Dean’s. It is important to note that the prices for the goal markets that we used for this study were average odds, and at best prices returns are likely to be around 5% better. Strikingly, had you backed Under 2.5 goals in Dowd’s 237 games over this period, you would have made a 17% loss, with Swarbrick even more costly to ‘unders’ backers, although admittedly over a smaller sample size. Backing Over 2.5 goals in games officiated by Mark Clattenburg and Neil Swarbrick would also have netted a profit, although neither of these are as strong for Over 3.5 goals.
In terms of ‘unders’ referees, there are three that would have returned a profit had you backed Under 2.5 goals in their games: Jonathan Moss, Staurt Attwell, and Martin Atkinson. Indeed, fewer than 46% of Atkinson’s and Attwell’s games have had Over 2.5 goals, and backing overs in games that they refereed would have seen you make a 13% and 23% loss respectively.
When looking for a connection to refereeing styles and goals it is interesting to note that there appears to be a correlation in the number of bookings a referee awards and the ROI in the goals markets.
| Referee | Booking Pts (all matches 14/15) |
Yellows Ratio (all matches since 05/06) |
| Kevin Friend | 46.9 | 3.6 |
| Phil Dowd | 47.3 | 3.6 |
| Mike Dean | 50.7 | 3.5 |
| Neil Swarbrick | 45.6 | 3.3 |
| Lee Mason | 39.8 | 3.3 |
| Mark Clattenburg | 41.7 | 3.3 |
| Mike Jones | 40.4 | 3.2 |
| Anthony Taylor | 48.1 | 3.2 |
| Andre Marriner | 34.4 | 3.2 |
| Martin Atkinson | 41.1 | 3.1 |
| Stuart Attwell | 27.7 | 3.0 |
| Craig Pawson | 44.0 | 2.9 |
| Michael Oliver | 44.2 | 2.9 |
| Jonathan Moss | 40.2 | 2.8 |
| Chris Foy | 47.4 | 2.7 |
Here we see that the most ‘overs’ referees, Dowd and Dean have the second and third highest ratio of yellow cards to games in all their matches managed since 2005/06 and that there is a clear gap in their yellows ratio to the referees below them. Similarly, the ‘unders’ referees, Moss, Atkinson and Attwell are very much on the lower end of the bookings spectrum.
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Category: Football trading strategies, Trading strategies
