Saturday Soccer Stats

06/12/2014 | By | Reply More

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PREVIEW: Bayern v Bayer Leverkusen (Sat, 17:30)

Bayern have conceded just one goal in their last 11 games and have won four of their last five home matches by at least four clear goals, so Leverkusen are facing an uphill battle as they head to the Allianz Arena.

However, Leverkusen have put up a decent contest against the champions in the past two seasons as they won here in 2012 and their two defeats have been narrow 2-1 scores. Worryingly though for Bayer fans, they’ve been starting relatively slowly this season as they’ve got just the 10
th best first-half record. That is in stark contrast to Bayern, who have been leading at half-time in 14 of their last 18 home games – only once failing to convert that into three points.

Bayern have so far played three of the other five teams in the top six and have actually only won once – 2-1 against Wolfsburg on the opening day – and those games have seen just five goals. Similarly their win against Dortmund was only courtesy of a late comeback to finish 2-1. In the past three seasons eight of Bayern’s 15 home matches against top-six finishers have had fewer than three goals while 12 have had fewer than four, and the goal-line for this match is closer to the latter.

Leverkusen’s away record isn’t that strong as they’ve lost nine of their 23 road matches since the start of last season. They are also not prolific scorers against the best teams having netted just five times in their six trips to top-six finishers last season and current top-six sides this term. 12 of their 23 away matches have had fewer than three goals and having kept four clean sheets in their last nine games overall they will be hopeful of keeping things relatively tight.

Bayern should, and most likely will, win here but Leverkusen look to have as good a chance as anyone in the Bundesliga of stopping them and they can at least limit the damage. Therefore 
they look worth supporting on the Asian Handicap +1.75 at 1.98, so even if they lose by two we only lose half our bet. 

PREVIEW: Southampton v Man Utd (Mon, 20:00)

Man Utd head into their Monday night game against third-placed Southampton on a four match winning streak and with the chance to leapfrog their hosts, who are facing their first serious test under Ronald Koeman having lost back-to-back matches.

The Saints drew both matches against United last season but before that they’d lost eight in a row against the Red Devils. Of more concern, however, will be the fact they’ve scored just five goals in six games since putting eight past Sunderland. Given those goals came against Stoke, Hull, Leicester, and Aston Villa, it is clear their attack is struggling. Until defeats against Man City and Arsenal their defence had been making up for that fact, and in truth they were unfortunate to lose both games, but against United’s attack they are likely to concede again at some point.

Southampton’s record against the top seven last season was W2-D4-L8, including failing to win at home with three draws and three defeats, and one of their two wins was against a Liverpool side missing Luis Suarez. That pattern appears to be continuing this season as they’ve lost all three of their matches against teams that finished above them last term.

Man Utd drew half of their six away matches against sides that finished 4
th-10th last season, with just one win, and with the bookies unable to split the teams there looks to be some value in backing the draw here. However, team news looks to be favouring United, as while they are likely to welcome back Wayne Rooney and have the squad to handle their lengthy injury list, Southampton will be missing Morgan Schneiderlin, Toby Alderweireld, and possibly Jack Cork and Dusan Tadic.

Schneiderlin’s absence should allow United greater control in midfield and significantly Southampton have lost six of the 10 games he’s failed to start since 2012/13 (compared to losing 31% of 80 games he has started). 
Overall United’s momentum and experience should give them the edge in this game and they look worth backing at 1.92 on the Draw No Bet.

The Over/Under 2.5 Goals market looks about right with Southampton’s trends leaning towards ‘unders’ and Man Utd’s towards ‘overs’. However, six of Southampton’s eight home games against the top seven last season and this have had between two and three goals. 
2.10 is available for the match to have 2-3 goals and that looks the best way to go in the goals markets.

Player Analysis:
Using Form Lab Black’s player analysis tool we’ve looked at the English lower leagues and found three teams who will be missing important players in this round of matches and without them they look set to struggle.
N.B. Appearances mentioned below relate to starting and completing an hour unless otherwise specified.

Dortmund v Hoffenheim
Adam Szalai, Forward, Hoffenheim

Szalai has missed seven of Hoffenheim’s 13 games this season and without him they’ve scored just nine goals, four of which came in one game, as 4/7 games have had fewer than three goals. With Dortmund also missing their best attacker – Marco Reus – this could be significantly lower scoring than expected and 
Under 2.5 Goals can be backed at 2.90.

Borussia M’gladbach v Hertha Berlin
Fabian Lustenberger, Midfielder, Hertha

Lustenberger has missed 18 of 47 games since the start of last season and Hertha have conceded 18% more goals per game without him than with him as their loss rate has risen from 41% to 56%. Furthermore, they’ve picked up just two points from the 10 matches he’s missed against top-half teams and we should see an easy home win here. 
Moenchengladbach may well cover the -2.5 Asian Handicap, which can be backed at 6.5.

Aston Villa v Leicester
Andrea Weimann, Forward, Aston Villa

Aston Villa have lost both games Weimann’s missed this season 3-0 and they’ve scored just two goals in their last seven games without the forward whilst picking up only one point, against last season’s bottom club Cardiff. This doesn’t look like a classic and Under 1.5 Goals looks a decent price at 3.3.

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Category: Football trading strategies

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I left a good job in the consumer technology industry to go a trade on Betfair for a living way back in June 2000. I've been here ever since pushing very boundaries of what's possible on betting exchanges and loved every minute of it.

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