Saturday Soccer Stats

05/04/2014 | By | Reply More

These stats are brought to your by our friends over at Football Form Labs. Check out their site and the powerful software that sits behind these comments. 

Aston Villa v Fulham

  • Aston Villa have just the 18th best home record this season – last term they had the 17th best
  • Since 2008/09, 8 of the 9 meetings between these sides have had fewer than 3 goals
  • Fulham have lost the 2nd half in 10 of their last 14 trips to bottom-half teams, including 6 Draw/Loss Half-Time/Full-Time doubles
  • 8 of Villa’s last 12 home games have been level at half-time

Cardiff v Crystal Palace

  • Cardiff have lost just 1 of 7 home matches this season against the current bottom 9
  • 13 of Crystal Palace’s last 14 games have had fewer than 3 goals with 8 having fewer than 2 strikes
  • 6 of Palace’s last 7 away matches have been goalless at half-time
  • 4 of Palace’s 6 trips this season to current bottom-half teams have had fewer than 2 goals with both teams scoring only once

Newcastle v Man Utd

  • Newcastle have lost to nil in 5 of their last 7 home matches
  • Man Utd have the best away record in the Premier League this season and haven’t conceded in their last 4 away matches
  • 7 of Man Utd’s last 9 trips to middle-third teams have had at least 3 goals

Chelsea v Stoke

  • Chelsea have won this fixture to nil in each of the last 4 seasons
  • Chelsea have won 9 of their last 10 home matches against middle-third teams with 6 wins to nil and 7 wins by more than 1 goal
  • Stoke have lost just 1 of their last 9 matches – a 1-0 loss at Man City – and have beaten both Man Utd and Arsenal in that time
  • 8 of Chelsea’s last 13 home games against middle-third sides have had fewer than three goals including 3 1-0 wins and 3 2-0s

Everton v Arsenal

  • Everton have lost just 2 of their last 21 home games against top-half teams and have won 7 of their last 12 hosting top-six sides
  • Arsenal have lost 7 of their last 10 against top-half teams
  • 9 of Arsenal’s 12 away games against top-six sides since 2011/12 have had more than 2 goals
  • 9 of Everton’s last 13 home games have had at least 3 goals

West Ham v Liverpool

  • 7 of the last 8 meetings between these teams have had at least 3 goals
  • West Ham’s last 7 home games against top-six teams have all had at least 3 goals with 5 having 4 or more as they’ve failed to score just once
  • 24 of Liverpool’s last 27 matches have had at least 3 goals with 19 having 4 or more
  • 6 of Liverpool’s last 7 wins away at bottom-half teams have come despite conceding and they’ve not kept a clean sheet in 9 trips to bottom-half sides

Spurs v Sunderland

  • Spurs have won 5 of 7 meetings with Sunderland since 2010/11 (W5-D2-L0) but have never been ahead at half-time
  • Spurs have drawn the first half in 10 of 12 home games against bottom-six teams since the start of last season
  • 14 of Sunderland’s last 19 trips to top-half teams have had at least 3 goals
  • Sunderland have lost 9 of their last 13 trips to top-half sides including 6 defeats despite scoring


Premier League: Man City v Southampton (Sat, 12:45)

[Edit – Peter says Southampton win 😉 ]

Man City will be pleased with a return of four points from their last two away games at Arsenal and Man Utd. With two games in hand they are now deserved favourites for the league and this is the first of five remaining home games they will expect to win. City have won 13 of 14 home matches this season and 10 of those victories have been by more than one goal.

Southampton are unlikely to make it easy, however, as they’ve won three of their last four matches and were particularly impressive as they trashed Newcastle last weekend. They’ve scored in their last 10 away matches. Furthermore, they’ve scored in nine of 11 trips to the top six last season and the current top six this term. Unfortunately for them they’ve also lost nine of those games including seven defeats having scored.

They’ll do well to score more than once though as City have conceded just one goal in their last six matches. At the same time that is a sign of City’s style having evolved slightly in the second half of the season. Possibly as a result of Sergio Aguero’s continued absence four of their last five home wins have been by either one or two goals. Since the start of last season the Argentine has started and completed an hour in just 17 of 33 home games and, while their win rate is almost identical with or without him, when he’s been playing they’ve won by at least two goals 59% of the time and by three or more in 41%. Without him those figures drop to 4% and 25%. Southampton have the ability to cause City problems and so we’d look at dutching City to win by one at 4.2 and City to win by two at 4.4 on the Winning Margin market.

Over 2.5 Goals is incredibly short at 1.47 given five of City’s last seven matches have had fewer than three goals. It is probably the form of Adam Lallana, Jay Rodriguez and Rickie Lambert that is causing this, but while we think they have a good chance of scoring we wouldn’t get involved with the goals markets at the current prices.

La Liga: Real Sociedad v Real Madrid (Sat, 19:00)

Real Madrid all but wrapped up their Champions League quarter-final in the first leg against Dortmund in midweek and now they face their toughest remaining league fixture. Last season Real Sociedad should have won this fixture as the game ended 3-3 and the last four times they’ve met there have been at least six goals each time.

Sociedad beat Barcelona here a few games ago and they come into this game at full strength. In fact they’ve lost just two of their last 29 home matches and it’s been 39 home games since they last lost by more than one goal. Real Madrid have a couple of worries ahead of this weekend with Cristiano Ronaldo a doubt. For all their excellence at times this season Madrid have only won by more than one goal in three of their 16 away games – at the teams in 16th, 18th and 20th – and they’ve not won any of five trips to the current top seven. However, Sociedad have been below their best since beating Barcelona and they’ve lost six of seven head-to-heads with Madrid since 2010/11 including by exactly one goal in this fixture in two of the past three seasons. Therefore we’d consider backing Madrid to win by exactly one goal at 4.25.

A stronger bet is that there will be goals here. 13 of Sociedad’s last 24 home matches have had at least four goals, as have nine of Real Madrid’s last 17 away games. Furthermore, five of Sociedad’s last seven home games against top-six teams have had at least four goals as have all of their last eight matches against the Big Two (7/8 +4.5 goals and 5/8 +5.5). With eight of Madrid’s last 12 trips to top-half non-Big Two teams having four or more strikes 2.15 for Over 3.5 Goals looks a superb price.

Player Analysis:

Using Form Lab Black’s player analysis tool we look at a three significant players who will be missing this weekend and see what their absence might mean.

N.B. Appearances mentioned below relate to starting and completing an hour unless otherwise specified.

Chievo v Verona
Nicholas Frey, Defender, Chievo

Frey has missed 24 of Chievo’s 69 games since the start of last season and they’ve conceded 41% more goal per game without him than when he’s been playing. Moreover, they’ve lost half the 12 home matches he’s missed with half the games having at least three goals. Chievo won the first Verona derby this season but Verona should get something this time and are 1.65 on the Double Chance.

Fiorentina v Udinese
Antonio Di Natale, Forward, Udinese

Di Natale is set to miss the next three weeks and in the 16 games he’s missed since the start of last season they’ve won only once as they’ve failed to score seven times. Fiorentina’s form is quite poor at the moment but against a Udinese side shorn of their best player and with nothing to play for they should win at 1.70.

Juventus v Livorno
Emerson Borges, Defender, Juventus

Borges has missed eight games this season, seven of which have been on the road, and without him Livorno have picked up just two points and conceded over two goals per game. Juventus are virtually on a victory parade already and should wrap up a comfortable win here. With Livorno missing their best defender Juve can be backed at 1.90 on the Asian Handicap -2.0.

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Category: Football trading strategies

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I left a good job in the consumer technology industry to go a trade on Betfair for a living way back in June 2000. I've been here ever since pushing very boundaries of what's possible on betting exchanges and loved every minute of it.

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