Saturday Soccer Stats
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Fulham v Chelsea:
- Fulham have lost their last six home games against top-six team including 4 defeats without scoring
- 6 of Chelsea’s last 8 wins have come to nil, including 3 1-0 scores
- This fixture has had just 25 goals in the last 12 seasons with 8 of 12 matches having fewer than 3 goals
Hull v Newcastle
- 7 of Hull’s 13 home games this season have had no more than 1 goal
- Hull have won none of their last five home matches against middle-third teams, with 3 draws and 2 defeats
- Newcastle have won both their trips to promoted teams this season
- Both teams have scored in just 1 of Newcastle’s last 8 away matches
Stoke v Arsenal
- Stoke have been level at half-time in all of their last 6 home games against top-six teams
- Arsenal have won 10 of their last 12 trips to bottom-half sides, including 6 wins to nil and 4 1-0 scores
- 12 of Arsenal’s 16 trips to bottom-half teams since the start of last season have had fewer than 3 goals
Southampton v Liverpool
- Liverpool’s record this season at teams currently in the top 12 is just W1-D3-L3
- Liverpool have conceded 23 goals in their last 12 away matches with just 1 clean sheet
- Southampton have had at least 4 goals in 5 of their last 8 home matches
- Southampton have conceded in 7 of 8 home games against top-six teams since the start of last season but have lost only once (W3-D4-L1)
Man City v Sunderland
- 8 of the last 10 League Cup finals have had at least 3 goals with 4 having 4 or more
- City have won 33 of 44 league games since 2011/12 when Toure, Kompany and Aguero have all started, with 21 wins by at least 2 goals and 14 by 3 or more
Aston Villa v Norwich
- Aston Villa have failed to score in their last 3 games and no side has failed to score more often at home this season
- 15 of Norwich’s 17 trips to bottom-half teams since 2012/13 have had fewer than 3 goals, with 8 having no more than 1 goal
- Aston Villa have recorded 4 Draw/Win results on the Half-time/Full-time market in their last 10 home games against bottom-half teams
Premier League: Swansea v Crystal Palace (Sun, 16:30)
Swansea have scored exactly twice as many goals as Crystal Palace this season but despite this they find themselves just two points above their opponents with both involved in the relegation fight. Garry Monk got a 3-0 derby win in his opening home game and there is definitely an argument that Swansea are worthy of a higher position, with their troubles mostly down to injuries to key players and a tough fixture list.
The Swans won just two of their opening 11 home games this season but they’ve since won two in a row and when excluding against the current top seven their home record this term is an excellent W4-D3-L0. Furthermore, all those wins were to nil and by at least two clear goals. In fact, home or away, their record this season against current bottom-half teams is W6-D5-L1.
Crystal Palace have scored just 18 goals and have failed to score in seven of their 12 away matches this season as they’ve lost 10 times. Furthermore, of the 27 teams in Premier League history to go into their 13th away game of the season having scored six or fewer away goals 22 went on to lose. Swansea are better than their position suggests.
Swansea have kept six clean sheets in their last nine home matches against bottom-half teams, with all those matches being goalless at half-time, and five of the nine games have finished with fewer than three goals. With Palace’s impotent attack ‘unders’ have to be favourite in the goals markets. 15 of Palace’s last 18 matches, including 7/8 on the road, have had fewer than three goals and Under 2.5 Goals looks a good price at 1.75, with the Swansea to Win with Under 2.5 Goals a juicy 4.1.
Category: Football trading strategies
