Similar matches

25/02/2014 | By | Reply More

When looking at matches like this evening’s champions league, I’ll often look at matches that had similar characteristics in the past. You would have seen me post up information on previous posts. For example, in the Man Utd match this evening my stats threw up the following: –

The market is forecasting 2.39 goals. Historically there have been 2.18 goals in similar matches according to our database. The market is pricing over 2.5 goals at odds of 2.38. Historically 33.3% of similar matches ended over 2.5 goals which translates into decimal odds of 3. This is hinting at lay value in this market.

The home team has scored at least one goal in 66.7% of matches. The away team has scored at least one goal in 73.3% of matches. The home team have scored two or more goals on 22.2% of occasions and three or more goals on 28.9% of occasions. The away team have scored two or more goals on 28.9% of occasions and three or more goals on 11.1% of occasions.Both teams have scored 48.89% of the time or decimal odds of 2.05

Another area that is also useful, as it adds context to a match, is to look at where this data came from. So on this occasion the market is pricing up tonight’s match in the same way as it priced up: –

2011 – Aston Villa vs. Man City
2011 – Sheff Utd vs. Nottm Forest
2011 – Stoke vs. Liverpool
2011 – West Brom vs. Tottenham

So…. when you look at this match this evening, ask yourself if that is a fair assessment or not and then you can bet or trade accordingly.


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Category: Football trading strategies

About the Author ()

I left a good job in the consumer technology industry to go a trade on Betfair for a living way back in June 2000. I've been here ever since pushing very boundaries of what's possible on betting exchanges and loved every minute of it.

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