Man City vs Chelsea

03/02/2014 | By | Reply More

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Premier League: Man City v Chelsea (Mon, 20:00)

Man City turned on the style at White Hart Lane to move to the top of the table and it’s clear that Chelsea are second favourites with the bookies, but a defeat here will leave them six points adrift with a vastly inferior goal difference.

Unfortunately for the Londoners a home win looks the only outcome, even with Sergio Aguero limping off against Spurs and out for a month. City have won all 11 of their home games this season, with nine wins by at least two goals, and this despite already hosting every other top-eight side apart from Chelsea. The Blues, meanwhile, have are yet to win any of their five trips to the current top eight as they’ve found the net just once. Aguero’s absence is Chelsea’s biggest hope as the Argentine forward has netted in 18 of his last 21 appearances in all competitions. However, he didn’t start any of City’s last three home matches and even without him a win for Man City is still the most likely outcome.

The goals market looks a trickier proposition here with 14 of City’s 23 matches this season having had at least four goals, while Chelsea’s five trips to current top-eight sides have had just three goals combined. No Aguero certainly lessens the goals expectation but nevertheless there still looks to be some value in ‘overs’. Of those five Chelsea games four were in their opening five away days and the other, at Arsenal, was played in terrible conditions. With City having failed to score before half-time in just one of their last 12 matches they could force Chelsea to open up the game early on and Over 2.5 Goals is most likely.

How many shall we score today lads?

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Category: Football trading strategies

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I left a good job in the consumer technology industry to go a trade on Betfair for a living way back in June 2000. I've been here ever since pushing very boundaries of what's possible on betting exchanges and loved every minute of it.

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