Variability of football, the tipsters nightmare
Here is a very easy puzzle for you to solve. Your friend asks you to forecast the result of a football match.
The scenario is quite simple: –
Team A Form
Hasn’t lost at home this year and is unbeaten run to 10 games. They have only conceded 16 goals in 17 games. They have lost just two of their last 36 home games (W24 D10 L2) and are 4th in the league.
Team B Form
Has no wins in their last six league games and have failed to score in four of those matches. They have only scored 12 league goals, the second-worst in the League and are bottom of the league.
The Odds
Home win – 1.38, Draw – 5.30, Away win – 10.5
Your prediction?
What would you predict? It seems obvious that if you go for a home win 1.38 isn’t terrible odds given the form and could represent value. Maybe if they are off form then a draw isn’t outrageous but an away win, surely not possible?
The reality
Of course the match I am talking about has already been played, it was Everton vs Sunderland, which Everton lost! I have chosen to highlight it to show the inherent randomness of football which can trip up even an ‘expert’ tipster. The reality is that less than three goals on average are scored in a football match so it doesn’t take much luck to radically alter the outcome of a match.
Since I first started modelling football matches way back in the early eighties it quickly became apparent that all you can forecast is the probability of a win, individual matches show quite a large variation. It doesn’t mean you can’t forecast it, over the course of the season I can be very accurate. It just takes some time to revert to mean and it can make you look foolish if you try and put your neck on the line by picking one of three outcomes.
I worked to reduce as much of this variability by identifying a number of key factors that account for over 90% of the variation between two teams. So I can pinpoint the exact cause of the differential between teams, but even then luck still has its part to play.
Look at something like Tennis however and there are tons of points to be won, think of them as mini goals. So the variation and final result tends to be more certain given differing skills levels. Each sport is a variation of another in essence, but obviously often vary in some of the other key factors.
As for football, that’s the wonder of football. But it’s very frustrating for offering advice on likely winners, which of course is what most people want!
Category: Football trading strategies
