Why friendlies can be a trading minefield

15/11/2013 | By | Reply More

I wont be actively trading the international friendlies this evening. There are many things I can predict about how a football match will pan out, but doing this on friendlies is much harder and a bit more random. Basically I don’t know if I have an edge.

Friendlies, especially like those tonight, are for managers to try a few things out. Shove some fresh talent onto the pitch and see how they perform. Change shape, try a few tactics and not be too worried about the results.

I like teams to have a specific imperative to win or to score or do something. If such a condition doesn’t exist, I think it makes it much harder to read how the match is likely to play out given any particular scenario. Therefore I don’t do friendlies! When I say don’t do, I mean I don’t get stuck into them or trade them in the normal manner.

I can’t offer any decent insight into these matches this evening. They are often difficult to price and have a lot of variables that you just can’t take account of. So if you are playing in these matches I would recommend some speculative plays opposing the obvious. I’ll be laying at short prices if I see an opportunity.

But here is the great thing about sports markets, it’s OK to say you haven’t a clue! This is because just around the corner is another market where you can make a good judgement and that is the key to trying to profit from them. Over the course of the year there are many 10,000′s of events. So if you come across one where you can’t make a reasoned judgement, Don’t. Wait for the time when you can because this is where you stand a chance of making a decent judgement and a profit! Another market will be along soon.

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Category: bookmark, Football trading strategies

About the Author ()

I left a good job in the consumer technology industry to go a trade on Betfair for a living way back in June 2000. I've been here ever since pushing very boundaries of what's possible on betting exchanges and loved every minute of it.

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