England Expects – Another draw?

11/10/2013 | By | Reply More

I’ll be watching but not trading tonight for the world cup qualifiers. As a rule of thumb I can’t trade something when I am emotionally attached to it. Tonight I’ll shall no doubt be shouting, moaning, directing and heading the ball at various points. I think I’d class that as an emotional attachment!

I’ll still do some stuff before the off and will probably carry that in play, but it terms of ‘hard core’ trading that can take a back seat tonight. Of course I have analysed the matches tonight.

The market is pricing England for a win by two goals to just about two thirds of a goal from Montenegro. England have basically been given a margin of 1.5 goals. But the question of course is can England actually win a game!

I had a quick browse of the stats this morning to see what we could expect and what chance England have of just winning a match for once, can and will they score first and settle nerves? But basically one goal is never really enough when there is an strong incentive to score for the away team. It could be a long evening!

Further to recent blog posts, I’ve rated the matches for you from highest number of expected goals to lowest, the percentage is variation to long term average, which is how I forecast goals. I’d estimate around 75 goals from this group of matches this evening. Good luck whatever your strategy tonight.

59% – Bosnia vs. Liechtenstein
40% – Germany vs. Rep of Ireland
39% – Spain vs. Belarus
32% – Andorra vs. Romania
30% – Moldova vs. San Marino
26% – Luxembourg vs. Russia
26% – Portugal vs. Israel
25% – Netherlands vs. Hungary
15% – Malta vs. Czech Republic
11% – England vs. Montenegro
7% – France vs. Australia
7% – Sweden vs. Austria
2% – Iceland vs. Cyprus
2% – Estonia vs. Turkey
-3% – Colombia vs. Chile
-5% – Ukraine vs. Poland
-6% – Ecuador vs. Uruguay
-6% – Slovenia vs. Norway
-7% – Denmark vs. Italy
-8% – Greece vs. Slovakia
-8% – Armenia vs. Bulgaria
-8% – Faroe Islands vs. Kazakhstan
-10% – Albania vs. Switzerland
-12% – Lithuania vs. Latvia
-12% – Croatia vs. Belgium
-12% – Wales vs. FYR Macedonia
-18% – Azerbaijan vs. Northern Ireland

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Category: Football trading strategies

About the Author ()

I left a good job in the consumer technology industry to go a trade on Betfair for a living way back in June 2000. I've been here ever since pushing very boundaries of what's possible on betting exchanges and loved every minute of it.

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