Goals, Goals, Goals….
If you search the blog for ‘Europa league ratings’ you should find a bundle of comments on previous Europe leagues . I don’t tend to post them much now as I never really got much feedback. I’m happy to post them regularly again if people want, I use them and it should be of use to others.
Number of goals
The thing I like about the Europe league at this stage is that it allows you to aggregate risk significantly. In my ratings you can see me forecast the number of goals. This is important as this allows me to ‘share out’ the goals across matches and use that to form an idea of what I am going to do.
In isolation I can’t predict exactly what will happen in a match, I can only predict what will happen ‘on average’. This is why tipping is such a minefield, you can’t explain your rationale only give a tip. Get it right and you are a god, get it wrong and you are a fool. But it reality, whatever happens, you could still end up ahead over very long time periods and that is my ultimate aim when trading or betting.
Spreading risk
When you get lots of matches all at once you can aggregate that ‘on average’ comment much quicker. As long as you a roughly get it right, it should balance out in double quick time. So tonight I will be looking to allocate 62 goals across all these Europa League matches.
In there will be some shocks, some low scoring and high scoring matches. But over the course of the season I will be more or less correct, tonight may be above or below that total, but it shouldn’t vary that much and that’s is the benefit of aggregating loads of matches into one strategy.
How ratings translate into strategy
So, for example, I can group matches into low scoring encounters and higher scoring ones. If you look at the blog post from yesterday, you can deploy that strategy into lower scoring matches. But I would want to avoid the matches at Sevilla, Esbjerb, Swansea and Elfsborg which rank as the more likely higher scoring matches tonight. Depending on your risk you may want to add more.
More goals equals, on average, earlier goal times. I can pretty much guarantee you I will be right over the course of the season but match to match variability can be quite high. But hopefully that gives you an idea of how ratings can translate into a strategy and why they can be of use.
Of course, for every market there is a strategy and every strategy a market, but there is one use for this type of rating.
Category: Football trading strategies
65 goals were scored this evening