What’s a Mata with Chelsea?

28/09/2013 | By | Reply More

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Spurs v Chelsea

Spurs have conceded just one goal this season to sit second in the table behind arch rivals Arsenal . However, they lost their only major test so far, in the North London derby, so if they want to prove they are genuine title contenders they will look to make full use of home advantage here against Chelsea.

Four of the last six meetings between these teams have finished all-square and if we look at the 10 head-to-heads since 2008/09 there hasn’t been much between the two sides with a W2-D5-L3 record for Spurs. Spurs have lost just one of their last 15 home matches, during which only Everton have managed to score twice at White Hart Lane. Furthermore, The Lillywhites have won four and lost just two of their last 10 home games against top-six sides.

Chelsea have not found their net in their opening two away games this term and they seem to be paying the price for Jose Mourinho’s decision to ignore their most creative player, Juan Mata. Since joining the club Mata has missed only 10 away games and The Blues have the unenviable record of not winning any of them (W0-D5-L5) – scoring just five goals in the process. Since the opening 30 minutes on the first day Chelsea have looked far from convincing and Spurs look good value.

Of their combined games this season, nine of 10 have had fewer than three goals (6/10 -1.5). Again we’d point to seven of the 10 away matches Mata’s missed, and 8/11 anywhere since the start of last season, having fewer than three goals. Contradicting this is the strong record of both teams scoring, and over 2.5 goals, both teams have against top-six teams. -2.5 goals was decent value at 1.95 earlier in the week but that’s come down to a best price of 1.83 and at that price we’d leave it alone and stick to the match outcome markets.

Real Madrid v Atletico Madrid

Last season Atletico came into the first derby of the season having lost just one of their opening 13 games. They lost 2-0 and then lost the second derby later in the season to make it eight consecutive derby defeats in the league. They did, however, win the Copa del Rey final against their rivals in May, courtesy of an extra-time winner so will hope they have now ended the hoodoo which had seen them go 25 games, and almost 14 years, in all competitions without beating Real Madrid.

This time Atletico have won their opening six games while Real have been unconvincing in winning five. However, Atletico have not played a team currently in the top half yet while Real are unbeaten in 34 home games including 20 wins in their last 21 at the Bernabeu. 16 of those 20 wins were by more than one goal and while Atletico have lost only five away games since the start of last season four were by more than one goal. 1.7 looks a big price on Real.

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Category: Football trading strategies

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I left a good job in the consumer technology industry to go a trade on Betfair for a living way back in June 2000. I've been here ever since pushing very boundaries of what's possible on betting exchanges and loved every minute of it.

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