Will the premier league goal drought continue?

14/09/2013 | By | Reply More

Many thanks to our friends over at Football Form Labs for this guest post.  Football Form Lab is software that I use to help me spot patterns or trends in football matches. It can help you identify thousands of opportunities every week across over 40 different leagues.  It’s very detailed and that’s why I like it, so much information.

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 The low amount of goals at the start of the 2013/2014 Premier League season has worried many fans, pundits, and punters alike.

Looking at similar seasons in the Premier League, we can possibly expect a below average amount of goals for the rest of the first 10 weeks, before numbers return towards the league average. However, don’t rule out another drop in goals at the end of the season.

At this stage we’d cautiously suggest that ‘unders’ represents slightly greater value for the next few weeks. However, there could be real value in ‘overs’ from weeks 11-20, as the bookies might over-react to the low scoring start. This is also historically the most profitable quarter of the season for backing ‘overs’ (there tends to be a slight drop in goals in the third quarter, while ‘overs’ gets priced in during the fourth quarter).

Significantly, in the similar 2005/06 Premier League season, we have +3.5 goals odds in our database for 121 of the 200 matches in weeks 11-20 and you’d have made a 32% profit backing +3.5 goals in those games (from average odds), as 35% saw at least four goals. For the other 79 games in that period, we have the +2.5 odds and those would have generated a 2% profit from average odds.

To see the full analysis please go to the Strategies tab within Form Labs.

MATCH PREVIEW – Man Utd v Crystal Palace

 Man Utd have not made the best of starts under David Moyes, having not scored in their past two games and now been subject to ridicule after their manoeuvrings in the transfer window. Crystal Palace, meanwhile, are off and running after a first win in their last game.

 United shouldn’t panic, however, given they earned the same number of points from the equivalent fixtures last season and certainly weren’t outplayed by Liverpool or Chelsea. It would certainly be a huge surprise if they went a third game without scoring. Since 2010/11, they’ve won 17 of 18 home matches against teams that finished in the bottom six (as we expect Palace to do) and they averaged 3.39 goals per game in those matches. 72% of the 18 matches resulted in Win/Win doubles and 78% saw the Red Devils win by at least two goals, with half by three or more. Furthermore, they’ve won 14 of 15 home games against promoted teams since 2008/09, with 11 wins to nil.

 Crystal Palace are yet to concede before half-time but while QPR and Wigan, last season, both stopped United from scoring in the first half at Old Trafford they both ended up losing by at least two goals and we’d expect the same here in that eventuality. The win to nil looks a great price at evens and we’d split stakes between that and Man United on the Asian Handicap -2.0 at 2.07.

 Given how Palace have kept things tight early on so far this season and United strong record of winning to nil against promoted teams we’d be wary of backing over-goals with Over 2.5 as short as 1.5. However, we’d expect the champions to take advantage as Palace tire and Over 1.5 goals in the second half looks a great price at 1.8.

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Category: Football trading strategies

About the Author ()

I left a good job in the consumer technology industry to go a trade on Betfair for a living way back in June 2000. I've been here ever since pushing very boundaries of what's possible on betting exchanges and loved every minute of it.

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